Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD Bulls in Retreat Post-Trump

Gold Technical Forecast: XAU/USD Weekly Trade Levels

Gold reversal from trend resistance at record highs intensifies-marks third weekly loss
XAU/USD post-Trump sell-off testing initial support- threat remains for larger correction
Resistance 2658/72, 2736 (key), 2804– Support 2532, 2450/82, 2324/41 (key)

Gold prices marked a third weekly loss on Friday with XAU/USD off more than 4.5% for the week. A reversal off uptrend resistance is testing initial trend support and while the threat remains for a larger bull-market correction, the immediate decline may be vulnerable into the weekly open. Battle lines drawn on the XAU/USD weekly technical chart.

Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this gold setup and more. Join live on Monday’s at 8:30am EST.

Gold Price Chart – XAU/USD Weekly

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; XAU/USD on TradingView

Technical Outlook: In my last Gold Weekly Price Forecast we noted that, “A seven-week rally in Gold takes XAU/USD into proposed uptrend resistance this week and while the broader outlook remains constructive, the immediate advance may be vulnerable into the November open. From a trading standpoint, a good zone to reduce portions of long-exposure / raise protective stops- losses should be limited to 2600 IF price is heading higher on this stretch with a close above 2804 needed to fuel the next leg of the rally.”

Gold prices plunged more than 9% off those highs with XAU/USD marking a third consecutive-weekly decline on Friday. The sell-off exhausted into the median-line of the 2023 uptrend on Thursday with price unable to mark a weekly close below. Note that weekly momentum has now broken back below 70 with RSI reversing from the overbought condition for the first time since the August breakout. The focus is on possible inflection off this slope with the medium-term risk still weighted to the downside while below the record high-week close (HWC) at 2736.

A break below the August high at 2532 would expose subsequent support objectives at the April high / 38.2% retracement of the yearly range at 2450/82 and 2324/41- a region defined by the 52-week moving average, the May high-week reversal close and the 38.2% retracement of the late-2022 advance. Losses below this threshold would invalidate the multi-year uptrend and suggest a more significant high was registered last month (bullish invalidation).

Initial weekly resistance is now eyed with the September HWC / 1.618% extension at 2658/72 with a breach / close above 2736 ultimately needed to mark uptrend resumption. Subsequent resistance objectives eyed at 2804 and 2900 / the upper parallel.

Bottom line: A reversal off uptrend resistance is testing initial trend support at the median-line- risk for near-term price inflection here. From a trading standpoint, a good zone to reduce portions of short-exposure / lower protective stops- rallies should be limited to 2658 IF price is heading lower on this stretch with a close below 2531 needed to fuel the next leg of the correction.

Ultimately, we’re on the lookout for an exhaustion low ahead of the lower parallel in the coming weeks with a close above 2736 need to mark resumption of the multi-year uptrend. Review my latest Gold Short-term Outlook for a closer look at the near-term XAU/USD technical trade levels.

Key US Economic Data Releases

Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.

Active Weekly Technical Charts

--- Written by Michael Boutros, Sr Technical Strategist with FOREX.com

Follow Michael on X @MBForex

The information on this web site is not targeted at the general public of any particular country. It is not intended for distribution to residents in any country where such distribution or use would contravene any local law or regulatory requirement. The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on our analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.

Futures, Options on Futures, Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Losses can exceed your deposits. Increasing leverage increases risk. Spot Gold and Silver contracts are not subject to regulation under the U.S. Commodity Exchange Act. Contracts for Difference (CFDs) are not available for US residents. Before deciding to trade forex, commodity futures, or digital assets, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained herein is intended as general information about the subject matter covered and is provided with the understanding that we do not provide any investment, legal, or tax advice. You should consult with appropriate counsel or other advisors on all investment, legal, or tax matters. References to FOREX.com or GAIN Capital refer to StoneX Group Inc. and its subsidiaries. Please read Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options.

Please note that foreign exchange and other leveraged trading involves significant risk of loss. It is not suitable for all investors and you should make sure you understand the risks involved, seeking independent advice if necessary.

The products and services available to you at FOREX.com will depend on your location and on which of its regulated entities holds your account.

FOREX.com is a trading name of GAIN Global Markets Inc. which is authorized and regulated by the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority under the Securities Investment Business Law of the Cayman Islands (as revised) with License number 25033.

FOREX.com may, from time to time, offer payment processing services with respect to card deposits through StoneX Financial Ltd, Moor House First Floor, 120 London Wall, London, EC2Y 5ET.

GAIN Global Markets Inc. has its principal place of business at 30 Independence Blvd, Suite 300 (3rd floor), Warren, NJ 07059, USA., and is a wholly-owned subsidiary of StoneX Group Inc.