Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD Bulls Charge Resistance

Gold Technical Forecast: XAU/USD Weekly Trade Levels

• Gold prices rebound from multi-year trend support- marks second weekly advance
• XAU/USD rally within striking distance of key resistance- U.S. CPI on tap next week
• Resistance 2736/47 (key), 2804, 2900– Support 2607, 2532, 2450/82 (key)

Gold prices closed a fourth consecutive daily advance on Friday with the post-NFP rally posting a weekly advance of nearly 1.9%. A rebound off slope support is attempting to mark resumption of the broader uptrend with key resistance now in view. Battle lines drawn on the XAU/USD weekly technical chart.

Gold Price Chart – XAU/USD Weekly

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; XAU/USD on TradingView

Technical Outlook: In my last Gold Weekly Price Forecast we noted that the XAU/USD was, “trading into a multi-year slope support into the start of the December and the focus is on a reaction off the median-line early in the month. From a trading standpoint, the focus remains on a breakout of the 2607-2736 range for near-term directional guidance.” A two-week advance has now rallied more than 4.4% off the December lows with a rebound off the median-line now threatening a stretch towards uptrend resistance.

The focus is on the record high-week close / 2024 high-close at 2736/47- a breach / close above this threshold is needed to mark uptrend resumption towards subsequent resistance objectives at the 2.618% extension of the 2022 range-break at 2804 and the 2900. The next major technical confluence is eyed at 3000/31- a region defined by the 2.272% extension of the 2011 decline and the 1.618% extension of the 2022 advance. Look for a larger reaction there IF reached.

Initial weekly support rests with the median-line and is backed closely by the 61.8% retracement at 2607- a break / weekly close below this threshold would suggest a larger correction is underway within the broader uptrend with initial support objectives seen at the August high at 2531 and 2450/82- a region defined by the April swing high and the 38.2% retracement of the 2024 trading range. We will reserve this threshold as our bullish invalidation level and losses would need to be limited to this slope for the late-2023 uptrend to remain viable.

Bottom line: Gold has rebounded off uptrend support into the start of the month with the advance now within striking distance of pivotal resistance. From a trading standpoint, look to reduce portions of long-exposure / raise protective stops on a stretch towards 2736- losses should be limited the median-line IF price is heading higher on this stretch with a breach above the high-close needed to mark uptrend resumption.

Keep in mind we get the release of key US inflation data next week with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) on tap Wednesday. Stay nimble into the release and watch the weekly closes here for guidance. Review my latest Gold Short-term Outlook for a closer look at the near-term XAU/USD technical trade levels.

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--- Written by Michael Boutros, Sr Technical Strategist with FOREX.com

Follow Michael on X @MBForex