Gold talking points:
- It was last October that gold tried to continue the breakout beyond the 2750 level, and despite a few daily closes above that price, that’s where buyers started to lose the handle.
- That then led to a strong retracement that ran for a couple of weeks through the Presidential election. But the response the mid-November low led to a higher-low in December and bulls have been pushing since the FOMC rate decision on the 18th of the month.
- I look into gold during each weekly webinar, and you’re welcome to join the next one: Click here for registration information.
Gold gained a little more than 40% from the February low up to the October high. But it was around that October high that the tone of the trend began to change, and around the U.S. Presidential election, attention shifted over to Bitcoin again and gold then spent most of the next two-and-a-half months digesting that 2024 rally.
But it was a week ago, around the U.S. CPI print, that bulls left behind the symmetrical triangle and that push has only continued since.
Today’s price action sees gold re-testing the 2750 psychological level, which was where bulls finally started to lose control of the trend last year.
Gold Weekly Price Chart
Chart prepared by James Stanley; data derived from Tradingview
The rally over the past month has been particularly strong, with a swing-low showing on the day of the FOMC rate decision last month, followed by the final test of 2600 on December 30th.
Since then, bulls have driven a sharper and sharper topside move and the challenge now would be trying to avoid chasing price after a near-parabolic-like run over the past few trading days.
Gold Daily Chart
Chart prepared by James Stanley; data derived from Tradingview
Gold Shorter-Term
Given the continued stretch of higher-highs and lows, there’s a few different levels of note for higher-low support potential. Both 2721 and 2731 are of interest and that latter level is confluent with a bullish trendline around tomorrow afternoon, as projected from the four-hour chart below.
But – even if those can’t hold, there would still be a remaining bullish case on a deeper pullback to 2700 as that would still be above the 2688 swing-low from the Sunday open.
Gold Four-Hour Price Chart
Chart prepared by James Stanley; data derived from Tradingview
--- written by James Stanley, Senior Strategist
