GBP/USD, USD/CAD, Oil, S&P 500, Bitcoin Weekly Technical Outlook

Weekly Technical Trade Levels on USD Majors, Commodities & Stocks

• Technical setups we are tracking into the weekly open- US Non-Farm Payrolls on tap
• Next Weekly Strategy Webinar: Monday, January 13 at 8:30am EST
• Review the latest Video Updates or Stream Live on my YouTube playlist.

In this webinar we take an in-depth look at the technical trade levels for the US Dollar (DXY), Euro (EUR/USD), British Pound (GBP/USD), Australian Dollar (AUD/USD), Canadian Dollar (USD/CAD), Japanese Yen (USD/JPY), Swiss Franc (USD/CHF), Gold (XAU/USD), Silver (XAG/USD),  Crude Oil (WTI), S&P 500 (SPX500), Nasdaq (NDX), and the Dow Jones (DJI). These are the levels that matter on the technical charts into the weekly / monthly / yearly open.

British Pound Price Chart – GBP/USD Daily

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; GBP/USD on TradingView

Sterling rebounded off confluent support at the lower parallel last week with GBP/USD rallying more than 1.6% off multi-month lows. Near-term resistance is eyed at 1.2571-1.2613- a region defined by the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of October 2023 advance and the June / July swing lows. Note that the median-line converges on this threshold over the next few days and rallies would need to be limited to this threshold IF Sterling is heading lower on this stretch.

Initial support rests with the December 2022 high-day close (HDC) at 1.2423 and is backed by key support at the October 2023 high / 2024 low-day close (LDC) around 1.2337/49- a break / close below this threshold would be needed to fuel the next major leg of the decline towards the 38.2% retracement of the 2022 advance at 1.2253 and beyond.

A topside breach / close above the median-line would suggest a more significant low was registered last week / a larger recovery is underway within the broader downtrend. Critical resistance / broader bearish invalidation now lowered to 1.2731/65- a region defined by the 2024 objective yearly open, the 61.8% retracement of the 2024 range, the 38.2% retracement of the September decline and the February 2019 swing low (look for a larger reaction there IF reached). Review my latest British Pound Weekly Forecast for a closer look at the longer-term GBP/USD technical trade levels.

Canadian Dollar Price Chart – USD/CAD Weekly

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; USD/CAD on TradingView

USD/CAD failed just pips ahead of the 1.618% extension of the 2023 advance at 1.4482 (high registered at 1.4467). The threat is for near-term exhaustion off uptrend resistance here and the immediate focus is on a breakout of the today’s range for guidance. A slip below the 75% parallel would threaten a deeper correction towards key support at the 78.6% retracement / 2016 high-week close (HWC) at 1.4098-1.4115.

Ultimately, a breach / close above the 2016 close high at 1.4538 is needed to fuel the next major leg of the advance towards key technical resistance at 1.4660/90. Keep in mind we get the release of both US and Canada employment data on Friday. Stay nimble in the release and watch the weekly close here for guidance.

Economic Calendar – Key USD Data Releases

Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.

--- Written by Michael Boutros, Sr Technical Strategist

Follow Michael on X @MBForex