European Open: Trump announces presidential rerun, NATO in focus

Asian Indices:

Australia's ASX 200 index fell by -19.4 points (-0.27%) and currently trades at 7,122.20
Japan's Nikkei 225 index has risen by 11.44 points (0.04%) and currently trades at 28,001.43
Hong Kong's Hang Seng index has fallen by -256.41 points (-1.4%) and currently trades at 18,086.71
China's A50 Index has fallen by -47.27 points (-0.38%) and currently trades at 12,443.34

UK and Europe:

UK's FTSE 100 futures are currently down -33 points (-0.45%), the cash market is currently estimated to open at 7,336.44
Euro STOXX 50 futures are currently down -38 points (-0.97%), the cash market is currently estimated to open at 3,877.09
Germany's DAX futures are currently down -155 points (-1.08%), the cash market is currently estimated to open at 14,223.51

US Futures:

DJI futures are currently down -20 points (-0.06%)
S&P 500 futures are currently down -22 points (-0.18%)
Nasdaq 100 futures are currently down -4.5 points (-0.11%)

Trump to run (again) in 2024 election

In true Trump style, his announcement was delivered in full ‘campaign mode’ to the roar of his supporters at his Mar-a-Lago resort. Citing high levels of inflation, his record for a US president not having a war and the amazing job he did of saving lives around the pandemic, he’s likely just warming up for what could be another turbulent 2-years (at least) for US politics.

At this stage the bigger question is whether he will split the Republican party and inadvertently hand the Democrats an easy win. Of course, a lot can happen between now and then – but if inflation is not under control, it will put the Dems in a very weak position by the elections.

However, it’s a long arduous road to the Whitehouse and as of yet Trump wields no presidential powers, so it could take some time for markets to take notice – which is likely why they showed no meaningful reaction today, from an announcement we all fully expected.

NATO to meet today regarding alleged Russian missile in Poland

Reports flew in of a Russian missile hitting Polish soil, killing two people. Given Poland is NATO member, and ‘and attack on one is an attack on all’, fears that the war in Ukraine will escalate beyond its borders and bring in NATO members quickly escalated. However, the US and Western allies are not yet able to confirm the report and are still investigating – and there has been some speculation that the rocket may be shrapnel from a rocket, and not a planned attack.

In the grand scheme of things, volatility could have been greater given the potential fallout from the alleged Russian missile. So, from that alone it appears markets have taken it within their stride and are assuming that a resolution can be found without an escalation of war.

FTSE 100 daily chart:

The FTSE 100 has found resistance at the monthly R2 pivot point, with the past 4 daily candles test (yet failing to close above) it. A bearish divergence has formed on the 1-hour RSI to show loss of momentum, and both prices and the RSI broke their respective support lines ahead of yesterday’s close. Given futures markets are pointing lower, I suspect the market has seen its interim high and we could be headed for a move back to the 7088 – 7133 support zone.

FTSE 350 – Market Internals:

FTSE 350: 4094.09 (0.66%) 15 November 2022

229 (65.43%) stocks advanced and 112 (32.00%) declined
0 stocks rose to a new 52-week high, 5 fell to new lows
12.57% of stocks closed above their 200-day average
50.57% of stocks closed above their 50-day average
5.43% of stocks closed above their 20-day average

Outperformers:

+ 4.25% - Carnival PLC (CCL.L)
+ 3.77% - Fidelity China Special Situations PLC (FCSS.L)
+ 3.38% - Centrica PLC (CNA.L)

Underperformers:

-16.79% - Ocado Group PLC (OCDO.L)
-7.94% - Vodafone Group PLC (VOD.L)
-7.17% - Synthomer PLC (SYNTS.L)

Economic events up next (Times in GMT)

How to trade with FOREX.com

Follow these easy steps to start trading with FOREX.com today:

Open a Forex.com account, or log in if you’re already a customer.
Search for the pair you want to trade in our award-winning platform.
Choose your position and size, and your stop and limit levels.
Place the trade.

The information on this web site is not targeted at the general public of any particular country. It is not intended for distribution to residents in any country where such distribution or use would contravene any local law or regulatory requirement. The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on our analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.

Futures, Options on Futures, Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Losses can exceed your deposits. Increasing leverage increases risk. Spot Gold and Silver contracts are not subject to regulation under the U.S. Commodity Exchange Act. Contracts for Difference (CFDs) are not available for US residents. Before deciding to trade forex, commodity futures, or digital assets, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained herein is intended as general information about the subject matter covered and is provided with the understanding that we do not provide any investment, legal, or tax advice. You should consult with appropriate counsel or other advisors on all investment, legal, or tax matters. References to FOREX.com or GAIN Capital refer to StoneX Group Inc. and its subsidiaries. Please read Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options.

Please note that foreign exchange and other leveraged trading involves significant risk of loss. It is not suitable for all investors and you should make sure you understand the risks involved, seeking independent advice if necessary.

The products and services available to you at FOREX.com will depend on your location and on which of its regulated entities holds your account.

FOREX.com is a trading name of GAIN Global Markets Inc. which is authorized and regulated by the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority under the Securities Investment Business Law of the Cayman Islands (as revised) with License number 25033.

FOREX.com may, from time to time, offer payment processing services with respect to card deposits through StoneX Financial Ltd, Moor House First Floor, 120 London Wall, London, EC2Y 5ET.

GAIN Global Markets Inc. has its principal place of business at 30 Independence Blvd, Suite 300 (3rd floor), Warren, NJ 07059, USA., and is a wholly-owned subsidiary of StoneX Group Inc.