Euro Technical Forecast: EUR/USD Grinds at Support

Euro Technical Forecast: EUR/USD Weekly Trade Levels

Euro plunges more than 4% off yearly high- attempting to snap four-week losing streak
EUR/USD now testing major support pivot- EU / US inflation data, NFPs on tap
Resistance ~1.0875, 1.0939, 1.1038/41 (key)– Support 1.0741/77, 1.0587-1.0641 (key), 1.0508

Euro is struggling to snap a four-week losing streak that has taken EUR/USD more than 4% off the yearly high. Price is now testing a key technical support zone, and the focus is on possible price inflection here with immediate decline vulnerable into the close of the month. Battle lines drawn on the EUR/USD weekly technical chart.

Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this EUR/USD technical setup and more. Join live on Monday’s at 8:30am EST.

Euro Price Chart – EUR/USD Weekly

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; EUR/USD on TradingView

Technical Outlook: In my last Euro Technical Forecast we noted that, “six-day sell-off takes EUR/USD into confluent technical support and challenges the June uptrend. From a trading standpoint, rallies would need to be limited to the monthly open IF price is heading for a larger correction here with a close blow 1.0942 still needed to fuel the next leg lower.” Euro broke lower the following week with a four-week decline now testing a major pivot zone at 1.0741/77- a region defined by the 61.8% retracement of the October 2023 advance and the February low-week close (LWC). Note that the median-line of a proposed descending pitchfork also converges on this region and the focus is on possible price inflection into this zone.

Look for initial resistance long the 52-week moving average (currently ~1.0875) backed by the March high-week close (HWC) at 1.0939. Key resistance is now eyed at 1.1038/41- a region defined by the 61.8% retracement of the September decline, the December high-week close (HWC) and the 2024 objective yearly open. We’ll reserve this threshold as our bearish invalidation level.

A break / close below 1.0740 exposes the last line of defense for the bulls at yearly low-close / 2023 LWC at 1.0587-1.0641- losses below this threshold would suggest a more significant high was registered last month with subsequent support objectives eyed at the 2023 low-close near 1.0508 and the 2023 low at 1.0448.

Bottom line: EUR/USD is testing confluent support into the close of the month and while the medium-term threat remains lower, the immediate decline may be vulnerable here. From a trading standpoint, a good zone to reduce portions of short-exposure / lower protective stops – rallies should be limited to 1.0939 IF Euro is heading lower on this stretch with a close below 1.0740 needed to mark downtrend resumption.

Keep in mind we have key EU / US inflation data on tap into the close of the month with US non-farm payrolls slated for Friday. Stay nimble into the monthly cross and watch the weekly close here for guidance. Review my latest Euro Short-term Outlook for a closer look at the near-term EUR/USD technical trade levels.

Key Euro / US Economic Data Releases

Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.

Active Weekly Technical Charts

--- Written by Michael Boutros, Sr Technical Strategist

Follow Michael on X @MBForex

The information on this web site is not targeted at the general public of any particular country. It is not intended for distribution to residents in any country where such distribution or use would contravene any local law or regulatory requirement. The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on our analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.

Futures, Options on Futures, Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Losses can exceed your deposits. Increasing leverage increases risk. Spot Gold and Silver contracts are not subject to regulation under the U.S. Commodity Exchange Act. Contracts for Difference (CFDs) are not available for US residents. Before deciding to trade forex, commodity futures, or digital assets, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained herein is intended as general information about the subject matter covered and is provided with the understanding that we do not provide any investment, legal, or tax advice. You should consult with appropriate counsel or other advisors on all investment, legal, or tax matters. References to FOREX.com or GAIN Capital refer to StoneX Group Inc. and its subsidiaries. Please read Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options.

Please note that foreign exchange and other leveraged trading involves significant risk of loss. It is not suitable for all investors and you should make sure you understand the risks involved, seeking independent advice if necessary.

The products and services available to you at FOREX.com will depend on your location and on which of its regulated entities holds your account.

FOREX.com is a trading name of GAIN Global Markets Inc. which is authorized and regulated by the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority under the Securities Investment Business Law of the Cayman Islands (as revised) with License number 25033.

FOREX.com may, from time to time, offer payment processing services with respect to card deposits through StoneX Financial Ltd, Moor House First Floor, 120 London Wall, London, EC2Y 5ET.

GAIN Global Markets Inc. has its principal place of business at 30 Independence Blvd, Suite 300 (3rd floor), Warren, NJ 07059, USA., and is a wholly-owned subsidiary of StoneX Group Inc.