EUR/USD outlook may not be so bright despite recent gains

After a weaker start to the week, the EUR/USD has found some support in the last couple of days – all thanks to Chinese efforts to reflate their economy and further weakness in US data, than anything euro-supportive from the Eurozone itself. Against a backdrop of weakening Eurozone data, I am starting to ease back my previously bullish EUR/USD outlook now that rates have nearly revisited the August high of around 1.12 handle. Without any sharp improvement in eurozone data, international supportive factors should play diminishing role to keep the EUR/USD elevated moving forward. That’s unless US recession alarm bells go off with further significant deterioration in data from the world’s largest economy. There’s not much in the way of Eurozone data to look forward to this week, so expect some range-bound activity in EUR/USD trading.

US dollar likely to go in a holding pattern

The US dollar index was trading higher on the day, thanks to a rebounding USD/JPY pair. But profit-taking in pairs such as the GBP/USD and CAD/USD, as well as currency pairs that don’t affect the DXY such as AUD/USD and NZD/USD, all helped to keep the gains in check for the greenback.

This comes after the dollar saw some weakness yesterday, as Chinese monetary stimulus flowed into commodity markets, boosting many emerging market currencies. While it's still unclear whether this China stimulus will have a lasting impact on global FX, signs of a US slowdown keep piling up, and it appears that investors have adopted a more bearish stance on the dollar.

Yesterday, it was a gauge of US consumer confidence that unexpectedly took a hit, coming in much weaker than forecast. Given the long-standing strength of the US consumer, this shift has grabbed the market’s attention. With only August new home sales data on today’s calendar, the dollar is likely to remain in an overall holding pattern ahead of this week's main event—Friday's core PCE index for August.

EUR/USD outlook: Eurozone fears could hold back single currency

The Eurozone's growth engine is sputtering, with recession fears for Germany, the region's largest economy, deepening this week. Monday’s PMI data painted a bleak picture, especially in the manufacturing sector, where activity is shrinking at an accelerating rate, with the PMI dropping to 40.3. The services sector also missed expectations, and both French and broader Eurozone PMI numbers were similarly weak.

Given these disappointing figures, there was little hope for an improvement in yesterday’s German Ifo Business Climate Index. As expected, the reading came in at 85.4, not only below the forecast of 86.1 but also down from the previous month’s 86.6.

As for as the EUR/USD outlook is concerned, the upside seems limited. With the Eurozone economy struggling, ECB reluctant to cut rates more aggressively and big question marks over China hitting its growth target (China’s role is critical for supporting Eurozone exports), the outlook for Eurozone growth remains unclear. This explains why traders are hesitant to buy aggressively into the euro, despite the recent surge in Chinese equities following new stimulus measures.

EUR/USD technical analysis

Source: TradingView.com

At the time of writing, EUR/USD was near its recent range high, suggesting it still remained in consolidation mode. This pair has been largely propped up by a weakened US dollar and renewed optimism surrounding China, one of Europe’s major export markets. The 1.1100 support level has held for now, but a close below this could signal a move towards 1.1000 or lower in the coming days. On the upside, resistance is sitting near the 1.1200 mark, where the pair peaked in August. While we haven’t seen a clear bearish reversal yet, this could shift if Eurozone economic data continues to underwhelm.

EUR/USD and US elections

Here’s how the upcoming US election is impacting, or likely to impact, the EUR/USD outlook. But in short, a win for Trump, ceteris paribus, is likely to be bad for the EUR/USD, while a Harris victory (which is being priced in) is seen as being positive.

-- Written by Fawad Razaqzada, Market Analyst

Follow Fawad on Twitter @Trader_F_R