EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, Gold, Silver, Oil Weekly Technical Outlook

Weekly Technical Trade Levels on USD Majors, Commodities & Stocks

• Technical setups we are tracking into the weekly open- US CPI on tap
• Next Weekly Strategy Webinar: Monday, October 7 at 8:30am EST
• Review the latest Video Updates or Stream Live on my YouTube playlist.

In this webinar we take an in-depth look at the technical trade levels for the US Dollar (DXY), Euro (EUR/USD), British Pound (GBP/USD), Australian Dollar (AUD/USD), Canadian Dollar (USD/CAD), Japanese Yen (USD/JPY), Gold (XAU/USD), Crude Oil (WTI), S&P 500 (SPX500), Nasdaq (NDX), Dow Jones (DJI), Silver, (XAG/USD), and the Swiss Franc (USD/CHF). These are the levels that matter on the technical charts heading into the weekly open.

US Dollar Price Chart – USD Daily (DXY)

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; DXY on TradingView

The US Dollar broke out of the July downtrend last week with a five-day rally of more than 2.5% extending into confluent resistance at 102.58/95- a region defined by the 38.2% retracement of the April decline, the 2016 high-close (HC), and the 2020 high. The immediate advance may be vulnerable below this threshold. Initial support at the September high-day close (HDC) / high at 101.77/91 with broader bullish invalidation now raised to the yearly open at 101.41.

A topside breach / close above 103 would be needed to fuel another leg higher in the index with subsequent topside objectives eyed at the 2023 yearly open at 103.49, the July low-day close / 200 day moving average at 103.74 and the 61.8% retracement of the yearly range at 104.08 – both levels of interest for possible topside exhaustion / price inflection IF reached.

Japanese Yen Price Chart – USD/JPY Daily

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; USD/JPY on TradingView

USD/JPY responded to confluent support last month at 140.25-141.02- a region defined by the December swing low, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the 2023 advance and the objective 2024 yearly open. The Dollar has now rallied more than 6.8% off the lows with the bulls now testing the first major resistance hurdle here at the 2022 weekly high-close / 2023 high-week close (HWC) around 148.73-149.60. The immediate advance may be vulnerable below this threshold.

Initial support rests at 146.42/65 with bullish invalidation now raised to the objective October open at 143.63. Bottom line, losses should be limited to the median-line IF price is heading higher on this stretch with a breach / close above the 75% parallel (blue) needed to fuel the next leg towards subsequent objectives at the 200-day moving average (currently ~151), the 2022 high at 151.95 and the 1.618% extension at 152.85.

Economic Calendar – Key USD Data Releases

Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.

--- Written by Michael Boutros, Sr Technical Strategist

Follow Michael on X @MBForex