Bitcoin in 2024: The Cryptocurrency Reaches $100k for the First Time

• During the last part of 2024, Bitcoin managed to surpass the $100,000 mark, driven mainly by the effects of the US presidential elections.
• Key factors that sustained buyer confidence throughout the year included the creation of spot Bitcoin ETFs and the Halving.

The most significant event for BTC in 2024 was breaking through the $100,000 per Bitcoin level, defying the market’s most optimistic projections and marking a new historical milestone in the world of digital currencies.

Events That Fueled Bullish Movements in 2024

Source: StoneX, TradingView

• The first notable event occurred on January 10, 2024, when the SEC approved Bitcoin-based ETFs for the first time. This decision facilitated institutional investment in the cryptocurrency and strengthened retail investor confidence, providing Bitcoin with a clearer path toward its consolidation as a competitive financial asset.

  The bullish trend that followed this event began around $38,000 and reached $73,000 per BTC between January and March 2024.

  Since its creation in January, BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) has accumulated $50 billion in assets by the end of 2024, reflecting the growing interest of institutional investors in the regulated Bitcoin market. This has been a cornerstone in maintaining confidence in the cryptocurrency throughout the year.

   

• The Halving, a scheduled event occurring approximately every four years, played a key role in driving bullish movements. It took place on April 20, 2024, when block number 840,000 was reached. The reward decreased from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC per mined block, creating a new perspective due to the reduction in Bitcoin supply, which was expected to put upward pressure on prices.

  Historically, Bitcoin has experienced bullish movements following each Halving, although this correlation is not guaranteed in the future. After the April event, Bitcoin initially dropped to $57,000 per BTC, but later rebounded, returning to the $73,000 zone.

   

• Then, after the significant price recovery in June 2024, Bitcoin exhibited much lower volatility and stabilized between $67,000 and $56,000. This was mainly due to discussions among cryptocurrency advocates pressuring companies like Microsoft and Amazon to include Bitcoin in their financial balances. However, Microsoft firmly rejected the proposal, and Amazon has not taken relevant action, which kept BTC’s price near $57,000 until October 2024.

The Big Surprise

Source: StoneX, TradingView

The most significant surprise of the year came with the US presidential elections. After Trump’s victory on November 5, BTC’s daily price swings grew significantly. Before the election, the average daily movement was around $2,500, but this changed to upward movements reaching as much as $5,000 on average, as shown by the Average True Range (ATR). At the time of writing, BTC’s price had risen by an impressive 60% since election day.

During his campaign, Trump emphasized the need for a regulated cryptocurrency environment in the United States and promised to establish a National Strategic Reserve in BTC to boost competitiveness. He also proposed adapting the SEC to the crypto environment, reinforced by the appointment of Paul Atkins. Now the market expects that his promises will take place during 2025.

The market viewed Trump’s election and these proposals as a positive factor, allowing Bitcoin to reach levels unseen ever before. This is reflected in the growth of its market capitalization, which increased from $1.3 trillion on November 5 to over $2 trillion in December, representing a 50% increase in just one month. A significant bullish movement was already expected after the election, but the market was unprepared for price increases exceeding $100,000 per BTC.

Market Capitalization Growth BTC ($)

Source: Coinmarketcap.com

The elections marked a turning point for Bitcoin in 2024 and now reinforce bullish prospects for the cryptocurrency in 2025. At the time of writing, the price has already exceeded $108,000 per BTC.

What to Expect for BTC in 2025

Bitcoin has surpassed the $100,000 zone, maintaining strong buyer confidence heading into the next year. However, the accelerated movements in November - December could lead to bearish corrections during the early months of 2025.

Source: StoneX, TradingView

• Accelerated Trend: Since late 2023, Bitcoin’s price has maintained a stable upward trend starting at $20,000. However, in the second half of 2024, the slope became steeper, leading to accelerated growth. It is crucial to monitor the resistance at $100k, as such rapid price increases could result in bearish corrections.
  
  
• Divergence and Overbought Signals: The RSI currently oscillates above 70, indicating overbought levels and an imbalance between buying and selling forces. Additionally, higher price highs combined with lower RSI highs suggest a bearish divergence in the final movements of 2024, which could signal a potential exhaustion of buying momentum.

  Both events do not suggest a trend change but indicate room for significant selling activity during the early part of 2025.

   

• Key Levels for 2025:
  
  • $100k: A psychological barrier that has become the new key resistance zone. Consistent buying strength above this level could reinforce the accelerated trend during 2025.

     

  • $88,000: A tentative support level where selling activity may concentrate as the price attempts to reach the trend’s floor.

     

  • $73,000: The most critical support level for Bitcoin, corresponding to the zone before the latest bullish movements. Breaches below this level could jeopardize the strong trend sustained in late 2024.