Bitcoin, Gold Analysis: Ceasefire, Holidays, and US Data

Key Events:

Israel-Lebanon Ceasefire Agreement
US Data Release (Today): GDP, unemployment claims, durable goods orders, and Core PCE

Upcoming US data releases today may introduce volatility to the US Dollar, gold, and Bitcoin. With preliminary GDP results, durable goods orders, and Core PCE on the table, market movements could accelerate. However, the "Trump effect" is beginning to overshadow Fed policy, shifting the market focus to potential 2025 Trump-driven initiatives.

On the global front, German and Eurozone inflation data due Thursday and Friday could trigger volatility in euro pairs, which would inversely affect the dollar.

Ceasefire Hopes and Market Sentiment

The finalized ceasefire agreement between Israel and Lebanon has raised optimism for similar resolutions in the Israel-Gaza conflict and the Russia-Ukraine war. The holiday season adds a layer of emotional relief, but questions linger over the potential for a "Santa Claus rally" in gold and Bitcoin, as geopolitical and economic factors remain highly influential.

Technical Analysis: Quantifying Uncertainties

Bitcoin Analysis: Weekly Time Frame – Log Scale

Source: Tradingview

Bitcoin’s recent pullback near the $100,000 level, as highlighted in the previous analysis 'Is Bitcoin's Rally Losing Steam?' reflects heavy selling pressure at this psychological milestone. The festive season may slow momentum temporarily, with a potential recharge for the rally in January 2025. Key Levels:

Bullish Scenario: A firm close above $100,000 could fuel the next leg of the rally, targeting $113,000, $120,000, and eventually $145,000

Bearish Scenario: Initial support lies between $79,000 and $77,000. A deeper pullback could target key supports at $67,000 (mid-channel), $57,000, and $47,000 (bottom channel boundary).

Gold Analysis: 3-Day Time Frame – Log Scale

Source: Tradingview

Gold continues to respect its long-term uptrend channel, established since the 2023 lows. The recent pullback was partly driven by optimism around the Israel-Lebanon ceasefire, which eased haven demand. However, the possibility of a Santa Claus rally could rekindle bullish momentum. Key Levels:

Bullish Scenario: A firm close back inside the channel and above $2,760 could push gold towards $2,890 and $3,050

Bearish Scenario: Short-term supports at $2,600 and $2,580 remain critical. A break below these levels could trigger a retracement to $2,530, $2,480, or even $2,300 in extreme cases.

--- Written by Razan Hilal, CMT – on X: @Rh_waves

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