Australian Dollar Forecast: AUD/USD Reversal at First Hurdle into Q3

Australian Technical Forecast: AUD/USD Weekly Trade Levels

Australian Dollar rally rejected at downtrend resistance- plunges back below 52-WMA
AUD/USD testing initial support into Q3- Core PCE, RBA, NFPs on tap
Resistance 6670/74, ~6728, 6816– support 6607 (key), 6467, 6393

The Australian Dollar plummeted another 0.8% this week with AUD/USD now testing support at the low-week close. The battle-lines are drawn into July with the broader outlook weighted to the downside while below the objective 2023 yearly open. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the AUD/USD weekly technical chart into the third quarter.

Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this Aussie setup and more. Join live on Monday’s at 8:30am EST.

Australian Dollar Price Chart – AUD/USD Weekly

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; AUD/USD on TradingView

Technical Outlook: In my last Australian Dollar Technical Forecast we noted that AUD/USD was, “testing a critical pivot zone into multi-year trend resistance- risk for inflection into 6725.” Aussie ripped through this level with price rallying another 2% before failing into confluent resistance at 6890-6922- a region defined by the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement pf the yearly range and the objective high-week close. A reversal off this key range has now plunged more than 4.4% in just two weeks and takes Aussie back below the 52-week moving average (now 6728).

The decline is testing support this week at the objective 2023 low-week close around 6607- a close below this threshold is needed to mark resumption of the broader downtrend towards subsequent support objectives at the 61.8% extension of the decline off the yearly highs (6467) and the 2022 October reversal close at 6393 (look for a larger reaction there IF reached). Resistance is now eyed back at 6728 with broader bearish invalidation now lowered to the objective yearly open.

Bottom line: Aussie has reversed back within the confines of the multi-year downtrend with price now testing the initial support. From a trading standpoint, a good zone to reduce portions of short-exposure / lower protective stops – rallies should be limited to 6816 IF price is heading lower on this stretch with a close below the 66-handle needed to mark resumption. Keep in mind we are heading into the close of the month / quarter with US Core PCE, the RBA interest rate decision, and Non-Farm Payrolls on tap into a shortened holiday week– stay nimble into the July open. Review my latest Australian Dollar Short-term Outlook for a closer look at the near-term AUD/USD technical trade levels.

Key Economic Data Releases

Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.

Active Weekly Technical Charts

--- Written by Michael Boutros, Sr Technical Strategist with FOREX.com

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex

The information on this web site is not targeted at the general public of any particular country. It is not intended for distribution to residents in any country where such distribution or use would contravene any local law or regulatory requirement. The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on our analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.

Futures, Options on Futures, Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Losses can exceed your deposits. Increasing leverage increases risk. Spot Gold and Silver contracts are not subject to regulation under the U.S. Commodity Exchange Act. Contracts for Difference (CFDs) are not available for US residents. Before deciding to trade forex, commodity futures, or digital assets, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained herein is intended as general information about the subject matter covered and is provided with the understanding that we do not provide any investment, legal, or tax advice. You should consult with appropriate counsel or other advisors on all investment, legal, or tax matters. References to FOREX.com or GAIN Capital refer to StoneX Group Inc. and its subsidiaries. Please read Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options.

Please note that foreign exchange and other leveraged trading involves significant risk of loss. It is not suitable for all investors and you should make sure you understand the risks involved, seeking independent advice if necessary.

The products and services available to you at FOREX.com will depend on your location and on which of its regulated entities holds your account.

FOREX.com is a trading name of GAIN Global Markets Inc. which is authorized and regulated by the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority under the Securities Investment Business Law of the Cayman Islands (as revised) with License number 25033.

FOREX.com may, from time to time, offer payment processing services with respect to card deposits through StoneX Financial Ltd, Moor House First Floor, 120 London Wall, London, EC2Y 5ET.

GAIN Global Markets Inc. has its principal place of business at 30 Independence Blvd, Suite 300 (3rd floor), Warren, NJ 07059, USA., and is a wholly-owned subsidiary of StoneX Group Inc.