US Retail Sales Report Preview (AUG 2024)
US Retail Sales
The US Retail Sales report showed a larger-than-expected rebound in household consumption, with sales increasing 1.0% in July versus forecasts for a 0.3% print.
US Economic Calendar – August 15, 2024
A deeper look at the report showed Retail Sales ex Autos increasing 0.4% following the 0.5% expansion in June, with the update from the Census Bureau highlighting that ‘nonstore retailers were up 6.7 percent (±1.4 percent) from last year, while food services and drinking places were up 3.4 percent (±2.1 percent) from July 2023.’
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EUR/USD Chart – 15 Minute
Chart Prepared by David Song, Strategist; EUR/USD on TradingView
EUR/USD came under pressure following the stronger-than-expected US Retail Sales report, with the exchange rate dipping to a fresh session low of 1.0950. Nevertheless, the reaction was short-lived as EUR/USD closed the week at 1.1029.
Looking ahead, US household spending is projected to increase 0.2% in August, with Retail Sales ex Autos expected to rise 0.3% during the same period.
With that said, a positive development may generate a bullish reaction in the US Dollar as it encourages the Federal Reserve to further combat inflation, but a weaker-than-expected Retail Sales report may produce headwinds for the Greenback as it raises the central bank’s scope to pursue a rate-cutting cycle.
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--- Written by David Song, Strategist
Follow on Twitter at @DavidJSong
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