US Dollar Price Forecast: USD Bulls Eye Resistance at Yearly Highs

US Dollar Index Technical Forecast: USD Weekly Trade Levels (DXY)

US Dollar defends monthly range low- rallies nearly 1.5% in three-days
USD rally approaching key resistance near yearly highs- Major event risk on tap
DXY resistance 107.18, 108.09, 108.97 – Support 105.39/67 (key), ~104.50s, ~103.85

The US Dollar bulls are back on offense with a three-day rally off the monthly lows now within striking distance of the yearly highs. Major event risk is on tap into the monthly cross with US inflation data, the Fed rate decision and NFPs likely to shape the November open. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the DXY weekly technical chart.

Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this USD setup and more. Join live on Monday’s at 8:30am EST.

US Dollar Price Chart – USD Weekly (DXY)

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; DXY on TradingView

Technical Outlook: In my last US Dollar Technical Forecast we noted that the DXY rally had, “extended into confluent uptrend resistance and while the broader outlook remains weighted to the topside, the immediate advance may be vulnerable here below 107. From a trading standpoint, losses should be limited to 105.39 IF price is heading higher on this stretch with a topside breach needed to fuel the next major leg higher in the greenback.” Price pulled back the following week with the index registering an intraweek low at 105.36 this week before reversing sharply higher. A close at these levels would validate an outside weekly-reversal and would keep the focus on a test of uptrend resistance.

A breach / close above 107.18 is still needed to mark resumption with subsequent resistance objectives eyed at the 2001 low (108.09) and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the 2022 decline at 108.97- an area of interest for possible topside exhaustion / price inflection IF reached.

We’ll now raise our near-term bullish invalidation level to weekly support at 105.39/67 – a break / weekly close below this threshold would threaten a deeper correction towards the median-line (currently ~104.50s) and the 52-week moving average near ~103.85. Broader bullish invalidation remains unchanged at 102.99-103.49- a region defined by the 2016 high-close, the January low-week close, and the objective yearly open.

Bottom line: The US Dollar has reinforced a key range between 105.39-107.18 – looking for the breakout for guidance with the long-bias still vulnerable while below. From a trading standpoint, losses should be limited to this week’s low IF price is heading higher on this stretch with a breach / close above the upper parallels needed to fuel the next leg higher in price.

Keep in mind, key US inflation data (PCE) is scheduled for tomorrow, with the Federal Reserve interest rate decision and Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) on tap into the November open. Stay nimble in the days ahead and look for the weekly close to validate the breakout. Review my latest US Dollar Short-term Outlook for a closer look at the near-term DXY technical trade levels.

Key Economic Data Releases

Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.

Active Weekly Technical Charts

--- Written by Michael Boutros, Sr Technical Strategist with FOREX.com

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex

The information on this web site is not targeted at the general public of any particular country. It is not intended for distribution to residents in any country where such distribution or use would contravene any local law or regulatory requirement. The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on our analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.

Futures, Options on Futures, Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Losses can exceed your deposits. Increasing leverage increases risk. Spot Gold and Silver contracts are not subject to regulation under the U.S. Commodity Exchange Act. Contracts for Difference (CFDs) are not available for US residents. Before deciding to trade forex, commodity futures, or digital assets, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained herein is intended as general information about the subject matter covered and is provided with the understanding that we do not provide any investment, legal, or tax advice. You should consult with appropriate counsel or other advisors on all investment, legal, or tax matters. References to FOREX.com or GAIN Capital refer to StoneX Group Inc. and its subsidiaries. Please read Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options.

FOREX.com is a registered FCM and RFED with the CFTC and member of the National Futures Association (NFA # 0339826). Forex trading involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Full Disclosures and Risk Warning. Increased leverage increases risk.

GAIN Capital Group LLC (dba FOREX.com) 30 Independence Blvd, Suite 300 (3rd floor), Warren, NJ 07059, USA. GAIN Capital Group LLC is a wholly-owned subsidiary of StoneX Group Inc.