US Dollar Majors, Bitcoin, Gold, Silver, Oil Weekly Technical Outlook

Weekly Technical Trade Levels on USD Majors, Commodities & Stocks

• Technical setups we are tracking into the weekly open / monthly close– Canada / US inflation data on tap
• Next Weekly Strategy Webinar: Monday, July 1 at 8:30am EST
• Review the latest Weekly Strategy Webinars or Stream Live on my YouTube playlist.

In this webinar we take an in-depth look at the technical trade levels for the US Dollar (DXY), 10yr Treasury Yields, Euro (EUR/USD), British Pound (GBP/USD), Australian Dollar (AUD/USD), Canadian Dollar (USD/CAD), Japanese Yen (USD/JPY), Bitcoin (BTC/USD), Swiss Franc (USD/CHF), Gold (XAU/USD), Silver (XAG/USD), S&P 500 (SPX500), Nasdaq (NDX), Dow Jones (DJI), and Crude Oil (WTI). These are the levels that matter on the technical charts heading into the weekly open / monthly close.

Gold Price Chart – XAU/USD Daily

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; XAU/USD on TradingView

We’ve been tracking this slope in gold since the start of the month and the immediate focus is on a breakout of Friday’s outside-day reversal candle for guidance. While the broader outlook is still constructive, the threat for a larger uptrend correction remains while within this formation. US Core PCE on tap into the weekly / monthly close.

Oil Price Chart – WTI 240min

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; WTI on TradingView

The crude oil breakout turned from resistance last week at 81.52/83 – a region defined by the May open and 61.8% retracement of the April decline. The focus into the start of the week is on possible inflection off this zone with a topside breach / close above the upper parallel needed to fuel the next leg higher in price towards the 61.8% retracement of the September decline / 2024 high-day close (HDC) at 84.57-85.33.

Initial support rests with the January high / 200-day moving average at 72.26/39 and is backed by the objective monthly open at 77.25 and the 61.8% retracement at 76.08- losses should be limited to this threshold IF price is heading higher on this stretch (bullish invalidation).

Bitcoin Price Chart – BTC/USD Weekly

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; Bitcoin on TradingView

Bitcoin is poised for a third weekly decline here with BTC/USD now approaching initial support at the 23.6% retracement / June open at 60,032/611. Note the highlighted slope confluence just lower near 57,700 – looking for possible downside exhaustion off on of these levels in the coming weeks IF price is still heading higher on this stretch.

A question came up in the webinar on whether this constitutes a double-top formation. We discussed it at length and IF the September uptrend is broken, the measured move would threaten a sell-off towards 41,051. For now, the focus is on possible downside exhaustion into upcoming support- watch the weekly close here. Monthly-open resistance eyed near 67,500 with a breach / close above the 2021 high / record high-close at 71,285 needed to mark uptrend resumption towards 81,310.

Economic Calendar – Key USD Data Releases

Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.

--- Written by Michael Boutros, Sr Technical Strategist with FOREX.com

Follow Michael on X @MBForex