US Dollar Forecast: EUR/USD Defends March Opening Range for Now
US Dollar Outlook: EUR/USD
EUR/USD appears to be defending the opening range for March as it holds above the monthly low (1.0798), but the exchange rate may track the negative slope in the 50-Day SMA (1.0840) as it struggles to trade back above the moving average.
US Dollar Forecast: EUR/USD Defends March Opening Range for Now
EUR/USD may consolidate over the remainder of the month as market participation is likely to wane going into the Easter holiday, with the opening range for April is in focus as the exchange rate struggles to retain the advance from the start of the week.
Join David Song for the Weekly Fundamental Market Outlook webinar. David provides a market overview and takes questions in real-time. Register Here
However, developments coming out of the US economy may influence EUR/USD as the Federal Reserve endorses a data dependent approach in managing monetary policy, and the US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index, the Fed’s preferred gauge for inflation, may sway the exchange rate as the update is anticipated to show sticky inflation.
US Economic Calendar
The headline PCE index is projected to increase to 2.5% in February from 2.4% the month prior while the core rate is expected to hold steady during the same period, and evidence of persistent inflation may spark a bullish reaction in the Greenback as it puts pressure on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to keep US interest rates higher for longer.
At the same time, an unexpected slowdown in the PCE index may keep EUR/USD within the March range as it encourages Chairman Jerome Powell and Co. to implement a rate cut sooner rather than later.
With that said, EUR/USD may face range bound conditions over the coming days should it continue to hold above the monthly low (1.0798), but the exchange rate may track the negative slope in the 50-Day SMA (1.0840) as it struggles to trade back above the moving average.
EUR/USD Chart – Daily
Chart Prepared by David Song, Strategist; EUR/USD on TradingView
- EUR/USD may trade within the confines of the March range as it appears to be defending the monthly low (1.0798), with a move above the 1.0860 (50% Fibonacci retracement) to 1.0880 (23.6% Fibonacci extension) region bringing the 1.0940 (50% Fibonacci retracement) to 1.0960 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement) area back on the radar.
- Next area of interest comes in around the monthly high (1.0981), but EUR/USD may track the negative slope in the 50-Day SMA (1.0840) as it struggles to trade back above the moving average.
- Failure to defend the monthly low (1.0798) may push EUR/USD towards the 1.0770 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement) to 1.0790 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement) region, with the next area of interest coming in around the February low (1.0695).
Additional Market Outlooks
US Dollar Forecast: USD/CAD Pulls Back Ahead of December High
US Dollar Forecast: USD/JPY Struggles to Test November High
--- Written by David Song, Strategist
Follow on Twitter at @DavidJSong
The information on this web site is not targeted at the general public of any particular country. It is not intended for distribution to residents in any country where such distribution or use would contravene any local law or regulatory requirement. The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on our analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.
Futures, Options on Futures, Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Losses can exceed your deposits. Increasing leverage increases risk. Spot Gold and Silver contracts are not subject to regulation under the U.S. Commodity Exchange Act. Contracts for Difference (CFDs) are not available for US residents. Before deciding to trade forex, commodity futures, or digital assets, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained herein is intended as general information about the subject matter covered and is provided with the understanding that we do not provide any investment, legal, or tax advice. You should consult with appropriate counsel or other advisors on all investment, legal, or tax matters. References to FOREX.com or GAIN Capital refer to StoneX Group Inc. and its subsidiaries. Please read Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options.
FOREX.com is a registered FCM and RFED with the CFTC and member of the National Futures Association (NFA # 0339826). Forex trading involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Full Disclosures and Risk Warning. Increased leverage increases risk.
GAIN Capital Group LLC (dba FOREX.com) 30 Independence Blvd, Suite 300 (3rd floor), Warren, NJ 07059, USA. GAIN Capital Group LLC is a wholly-owned subsidiary of StoneX Group Inc.
© FOREX.COM 2025