Trading FOREX

The focus this morning for local markets has been on the RBA Board meeting minutes for September and for possible clues it contained as to the Board’s view around the pace of future interest rate hikes.

With the dust still settling on last night’s red-hot U.S inflation data, attention locally will turn to an Antipodean doubleheader tomorrow in the shape of Q2 NZ GDP and the Australian August labour force report.

This morning saw the release of Australian Business and Consumer Confidence data, framed against surging prices and a fourth consecutive 50bp rate hike from the RBA last week.

The national accounts released today showed the Australian economy in the June Quarter expanded by a solid 0.9% and 3.6% YoY. It's the third consecutive quarter of economic expansion for the Australian economy.

At its monthly meeting this afternoon, the Reserve Bank Board raised its official cash rate for a fourth consecutive time by 50bp from 1.85% to 2.35%.

The initial reaction in the FX market was as expected yesterday after Fed Chair Powell’s hawkish remarks at Jackson Hole.

The Australian jobs report for July has provided a messy mix. The unemployment rate fell to a 48-year low of 3.4%, despite the economy shedding 40,900 jobs, snapping a run of eight consecutive months of gains.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has today raised the Official Cash Rate by 50 basis points to 3%. It is the RBNZ’s fourth straight 50bp hike in a row, in a tightening cycle that started back in October.

RBA Preview and what next for the AUDUSD

Following last week's mega moves by central banks, the calendar this week allows central bankers to finetune some of those shifts, starting with a plethora of communique from the RBA this morning.

At its monthly meeting next Tuesday, the 7th, the Reserve Bank Board is widely expected to raise the cash rate from its current setting of 0.35%.

As the release of the final partials yesterday warned, Australian Q1 2022 Australian GDP has beaten expectations, rising by a solid 0.8% QoQ and 3.3% YoY, despite the impact of Omicron and the devastating rains and floods that hit the East Coast.

Just one week before the highly anticipated June RBA Board meeting, Australian Q1 2022 GDP is set to drop this Wednesday.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has today raised the Official Cash Rate by 50 basis points to 2.00%, a follow up to its 50bp rate hike in April. While this was widely expected, a surprise came as the RBNZ revised the OCR terminal rate to 3.9% in June 2023 from its earlier 3.35% forecast.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is widely expected to raise the Official Cash Rate by another 50 basis points to 2.00% at its meeting tomorrow. The real focus will be on the accompanying Monetary Policy Statement (MPS), which will provide updated inflation forecasts and OCR track changes.

After the RBA Minutes noted yesterday that members had considered a 40bp rate increase at the May meeting, the focus for traders this morning was firmly on Q1 AU 2022 wages data - seeking clues as to the size of the RBA's next rate hike.

This morning saw the release of the RBA’s May meeting minutes. The market was hoping for clues on the likely size of next month’s rate hike, particularly after the bank caught all commentators on the wrong foot last month by raising rates by 25bp to 0.35%.