jobs

Coming in the lead up to a tightly-contested Presidential election, this month’s NFP report could have an outsized impact on sentiment and the US dollar.

The recent consolidation in the US Dollar Index and the Fed’s renewed data dependence could lead to a more-volatile-than-usual reaction in the US dollar.

Thankfully, some of the early data suggests that the US consumer remained healthy as of December, and that optimism is keeping expectations for the labor market elevated as well.

Traders are split 50/50 between expecting another 75bps rate hike and a downshift to 50bps, so we’re likely to see some market volatility regardless of how this month’s jobs report prints.

The JOLTS figure today shows that the US has even more job vacancies than anticipated, which was already high. This should give the Fed confidence in raising rates by 75bps tomorrow.

If the NFP print is weaker than expected, there will be a lot of talk about the Fed 'pivot', and markets may see the current trends in stocks and the US Dollar continue!

If the NFP print is weaker than expected, there will be a lot of talk about the Fed pivot, and markets may see the current trends in stocks and the US Dollar continue!

With some calm restored to Wall Street overnight, attention today tuned to the release of Q2 NZ GDP and the Australian August labour force report for August.

Following an impressive gain of +366k jobs in November, the Australian economy added another +64.8k job in December. The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate fell to 4.2% from 4.6%, its lowest level since pre the Global Financial Crisis, August 2008

At its board meeting last week, the Reserve Bank of Australia noted that a tighter labour market is required to lift wages growth, which takes time to achieve its inflation objective.

This month’s NFP report comes out at a bit of an awkward time for traders, but inflation remains in focus

Tomorrow at 11.30 am Sydney time, Australian labour force data for September is due to drop.

This month’s US jobs report will likely only have to clear the lowest of hurdles to keep the Fed on track...

The latest data on the pandemic shows US cases declining sharply after peaking in the middle of September, suggesting that travel-sensitive industries may flip back into growth mode sooner rather than later...

Never underestimated the power of the American consumer.

The Canadian employment data helped to provide further evidence of the BOC's outlook.

The reopening is the future.