Candlesticks

As US traders return to their desks after yesterday’s bank holiday, we’re seeing a bit of a “Turnaround Tuesday” emerge in the FX market, with the US dollar falling against all of its major rivals after showing relative strength in yesterday’s trade (see “Dollar Index Holding Above Key Area in the Mid-95.00s” for more).

As US traders returned to their desks this morning, the dominant theme was US dollar weakness.

It’s been a harrowing trip for global markets today, and ECB President Mario Draghi was the conductor.

First traders were impressed by the size and scope of the ECB’s aggressive actions to ease monetary policy, but the market’s collective view shifted to dismay when Draghi later indicated that further rate cuts were neither anticipated nor needed. As my colleague James Chen noted earlier today, “While not as disappointing as December’s under-delivery of easing actions, the press conference essentially amounted to a forward-looking disappointment due to Draghi’s relatively strong comments regarding future rate cuts.”

My, what a difference a couple of hours makes. As US traders trudged into their offices this morning, it seemed as though the sky was falling: continued fears of Brexit were driving GBP/USD to 7-year lows, major equity markets were trading down by about 2% across the board, and oil (WTI) was falling back toward the widely-watched 30.00 level. Since then, each of those moves has been unwound to some extent, and in fact, both US equities and oil have turned positive on the day as of writing.

For any medium-term traders tracking NZD/USD, the kiwi has been rather dull of late. The pair has carved out a roughly 500-pip range from .6300 up to .6900 over the last eight months, and over the last week, rates have been essentially stationary in the middle of that range around .6650. At first glance, the technical bias is definitively neutral.

Traders are abuzz this morning with the “news” that Saudi Arabia, Russia, Qatar, and Venezuela have agreed to freeze oil output at the January’s levels, ostensibly in an effort to support oil prices. Speaking bluntly, this agreement (which is still conditional, as it depends on other countries supporting the move) is hardly a game-changer from a supply and demand perspective, as those countries were already producing at their maximum levels with no immediate plans to increase production anyway. As one analyst put it, it’s like promising not to drive your Ford Focus above 220km/hr; you couldn’t do it even if you wanted to.

Things are looking decidedly better for risk assets today, and not just in a “Thank Goodness It’s Friday” kind of way. Starting with the world’s most important market of late, oil has built on yesterday’s gains and assuming the current gains hold, WTI is on track for back-to-back daily gains for the first time since before Christmas. As my colleague Fawad Razaqzada notes below, talk of a long-term bottom in oil prices is premature at this stage, but traders will take anything they can get after the relentless collapse to start the year.

Markets are a bit more stable across the board today as traders navigate another essentially economic data-free day. The fundamental tranquility will likely be rudely interrupted later this week – Key upcoming reports include Chinese trade balance figures tonight, AU employment tomorrow night, the BOE’s Super Thursday festivities, and US Retail Sales / PPI / Consumer data on Friday – but technical concerns and market sentiment should be the primary driver of trade in today’s US session.