Oil Price Forecast: WTI Breakout Underway- Bulls Attempt to Secure 80

Crude Oil Technical Forecast: WTI Weekly, Daily & Intraday Trade Levels

• Oil prices breakout of April downtrend- WTI rallies more than 13% off June low
• Crude bulls testing first technical hurdle- outlook constructive while above monthly open
• Resistance 81.52/83, 84.15-85.33 (key), 86.83-87.09- Support 79.26/42, 77.25, 76.08

Oil prices surged more than 13% off the monthly lows with WTI marking the largest two-week rally since February. The advance takes price back above the 200-day moving average and into the first major technical hurdle with key resistance eyed just higher. The battle lines are drawn heading into the close of June as we take a multi-timeframe view at the oil market. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the weekly, daily, and 240min WTI technical charts.

Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this crude oil setup and more. Join live on Monday’s at 8:30am EST.

Oil Price Chart – WTI Weekly

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; WTI on TradingView

Technical Outlook: In last month’s Oil Price Forecast we noted that, “From a trading standpoint, the threat remains lower while within this channel with a close below 77.49 needed to mark resumption.” We specifically highlighted cited objectives at, “the 61.8% retracement of the October advance at 75.31 and key support into the yearly low-day close at 72.99- both levels of interest for possible downside exhaustion / price inflection IF reached.”

Oil prices plunged more than 10% into the monthly cross with WTI briefly registering an intraday low at 72.45 before rebounding sharply. A V-Shaped recovery off the lows is now testing Fibonacci resistance and once again threatens a larger breakout of the multi-year downtrend we’ve been tracking off the 2022 high. Note that ultimately, we’re looking for a breakout of this massive consolidation (red) off the 2023 lows for guidance in the weeks ahead.

Oil Price Chart – WTI Daily

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; WTI on TradingView

The immediate focus is on confluent resistance here at the May open / 61.8% retracement of the April decline at 81.52/83. The June advance may be vulnerable while below this threshold- watch the weekly closes.

Key resistance is eyed at 84.15-85.33- a region defined by the 2021 high-close (HC), the 61.8% retracement of the 2023 decline, and the 2024 high-day & high-week closes (HDC / HWC). Note that numerous slopes converge on this threshold over the next few weeks and a breach / close above would be needed to suggest a more significant low was registered last this month / fuel the next leg higher in price towards 86.83-87.09 and the 2023 HWC at 90.79- look for a larger reaction there IF reached.

Oil Price Chart – WTI 240min

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; WTI on TradingView

A closer look at oil price action shows WTI trading within the confines of a proposed ascending pitchfork extending off the May / June lows with the upper parallel further highlighting near-term resistance at 81.52/83. Initial support rests with the 200-day moving average / January high / 5/29 reversal close at 79.26/42 and is backed by the June open at 77.25. Near-term bullish invalidation now raised to 76.08.

Bottom line: Oil has rallied into the first major technical hurdle with key resistance eyed just higher. From a trading standpoint, a good zone to reduce portions of long-exposure / raise protective stops- losses should be limited to the median-line IF price is heading higher on this stretch with a close above 85.33 ultimately needed to validate a breakout of the multi-year consolidation pattern.

Keep in mind we get the release of key US inflation data next week with US Core PCE on tap into the close of June. As always, stay nimble into the monthly cross and watch the weekly close here for guidance. We’ll review these charts in-depth in the Weekly Technical Outlook Webinar on Monday.

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--- Written by Michael Boutros, Sr Technical Strategist with FOREX.com

Follow Michael on X @MBForex