Oil Price Forecast: Crude Breakout Fuels Yearly High in WTI

Crude Oil Technical Forecast: WTI Weekly Trade Levels

Oil prices mark outside weekly reversal - WTI rallies through March opening-range high
Crude breakout eyeing technical resistance at multi-month highs- BoJ, RBA, Fed, BoE on tap
WTI Resistance 82.78-83.28, 84.57 (key), 89.16- Support 79.75, ~78.27/30, 76.96

Oil prices surged more than 6.2% off the March lows this week with WTI now up more than 20% from the December low. A breach of resistance at the February / March range highs keeps the focus on more significant technical hurdle just higher. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the WTI daily technical chart heading into next week’s flurry of central bank rate decisions.

Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this crude oil setup and more. Join live on Monday’s at 8:30am EST.

Oil Price Chart – WTI Daily

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; WTI on TradingView

Technical Outlook: Oil price ripped through technical resistance around the monthly opening-range highs this week at 79.75-80.31- a region defined by the mid-November swing highs, the February highs, and the objective 2023 yearly open. The move is set to close an outside-weekly reversal into fresh yearly highs ahead of the close on Friday and keeps the broader outlook weighted to the topside in the weeks ahead.

The next confluent resistance hurdle is eyed at the October low-day close (LDC), the 100% extension of the December rally, and the 2021 high-week close (HWC) around 82.78-83.28. Key resistance remains with the 61.8% retracement of the September decline at 84.57- a breach / weekly close above this threshold is ultimately needed to suggest a larger breakout / trend reversal is underway towards the 89-handle and beyond.

Initial weekly support now rests at 79.75 backed by a more significant technical confluence at objective monthly open / 200-day moving average at ~78.27/30. Broader bullish invalidation now raised to the 2022 yearly open at 75.35.

Bottom line: The breakout to multi-month highs keeps the uptrend viable heading into next week. From at trading standpoint, look to reduce portions of long-exposure / raise protective stops on a rally towards 83 - losses should be limited to 78.27 IF price is heading higher on this stretch. Keep in mind there are numerous central bank rate decisions on tap next week with the releases of the highly anticipated quarterly economic projections from the Fed likely to take center stage Wednesday.

Key Economic Data Releases

Active Weekly Technical Charts

--- Written by Michael Boutros, Sr Technical Strategist with FOREX.com

Follow Michael on X @MBForex

The information on this web site is not targeted at the general public of any particular country. It is not intended for distribution to residents in any country where such distribution or use would contravene any local law or regulatory requirement. The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on our analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.

Futures, Options on Futures, Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Losses can exceed your deposits. Increasing leverage increases risk. Spot Gold and Silver contracts are not subject to regulation under the U.S. Commodity Exchange Act. Contracts for Difference (CFDs) are not available for US residents. Before deciding to trade forex, commodity futures, or digital assets, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained herein is intended as general information about the subject matter covered and is provided with the understanding that we do not provide any investment, legal, or tax advice. You should consult with appropriate counsel or other advisors on all investment, legal, or tax matters. References to FOREX.com or GAIN Capital refer to StoneX Group Inc. and its subsidiaries. Please read Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options.

FOREX.com is a registered FCM and RFED with the CFTC and member of the National Futures Association (NFA # 0339826). Forex trading involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Full Disclosures and Risk Warning. Increased leverage increases risk.

GAIN Capital Group LLC (dba FOREX.com) 30 Independence Blvd, Suite 300 (3rd floor), Warren, NJ 07059, USA. GAIN Capital Group LLC is a wholly-owned subsidiary of StoneX Group Inc.