Open an Account
☰
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 76% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Open an Account
✖

NFP early insight 1M jobs on tap

Article By: ,  Head of Market Research
May 3, 2021 10:13 AM

With bank holidays in the UK, Japan, and China today, it’s not surprising that most major markets have gotten off to a slow start to the trading week. That said, trading activity is likely to pick up sharply as the week rolls on, culminating in Friday’s highly-anticipated release of the April Non-Farm Payrolls report.

Last month, the marquee US jobs report came in at 916K, crushing estimates of 652K net new jobs, and we also saw positive revisions to the previous month’s release. Economists have taken note of the impressive figure, as well as the ongoing rollout of COVID vaccines, and the consensus estimate for Friday’s report is 975k net new jobs, which would mark the strongest reading on the US labor market in the last eight months.

As we saw in last week’s FOMC meeting, the central bank isn’t likely to make any changes to monetary policy any time soon, so this NFP report is unlikely to have an immediate impact on Fed policy. That said, another strong report, especially if accompanied by an uptick in the average hourly earnings figure, could prompt speculators to start buying US assets in anticipation of the Fed removing some of its stimulus down the line.

Stay tuned for our full preview of the NFP report on Wednesday, May 5!

See our complete guide to the Non-Farm Payroll report!

Currency pair to watch during NFP: USD/CAD

The North American pairing tends to be particularly active on NFP Fridays because Canada releases its own monthly jobs report, giving traders multiple high-impact releases to digest. As of writing, USD/CAD remains within its 6-month bearish channel and is currently testing a 4.5-year low near 1.2250:

Source: TradingView, StoneX

With rates extended away from the 50-day EMA, probing this key long-term support level, and the 14-day RSI testing its lowest level of the year, there’s potential for USD/CAD to see at least a short-term bounce if the US jobs report beats expectations and/or the Canadian version of the report comes in soft. Meanwhile, the 1.2250 represents a clear “line in the sand,” so a confirmed break below that level, if seen, could quickly see USD/CAD falling toward 1.2100.

Learn more about forex trading opportunities.



The information on this web site is not targeted at the general public of any particular country. It is not intended for distribution to residents in any country where such distribution or use would contravene any local law or regulatory requirement. The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on our analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.

Futures, Options on Futures, Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Losses can exceed your deposits. Increasing leverage increases risk. Spot Gold and Silver contracts are not subject to regulation under the U.S. Commodity Exchange Act. Contracts for Difference (CFDs) are not available for US residents. Before deciding to trade forex, commodity futures, or digital assets, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained herein is intended as general information about the subject matter covered and is provided with the understanding that we do not provide any investment, legal, or tax advice. You should consult with appropriate counsel or other advisors on all investment, legal, or tax matters. References to FOREX.com or GAIN Capital refer to StoneX Group Inc. and its subsidiaries. Please read Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options.

FOREX.com is a registered FCM and RFED with the CFTC and member of the National Futures Association (NFA # 0339826). Forex trading involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Full Disclosures and Risk Warning. Increased leverage increases risk.

GAIN Capital Group LLC (dba FOREX.com) 30 Independence Blvd, Suite 300 (3rd floor), Warren, NJ 07059, USA. GAIN Capital Group LLC is a wholly-owned subsidiary of StoneX Group Inc.

© FOREX.COM 2025