CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 76% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

Nasdaq100 forecast: Stocks rise after a Goldilocks jobs report

Article By: ,  Senior Market Analyst

US futures

Dow futures +0.45% at 34888

S&P futures +0.56% at 4533

Nasdaq futures +0.50% at 15589

In Europe

FTSE +0.4% at 7478

Dax -0.21% at 15940

  • US NFP 187K jobs added vs 170k forecast
  • US average earnings rise 0.2% MoM vs 0.3% forecast
  • Dell jumps 10% after upbeat guidance
  • Oil is set to rise for a second week 

US NFP 187K jobs added vs 170k forecast

US stocks are rising after a Goldilocks US non-farm payroll report which saw payrolls rise by more than expected while wage growth cooled.

The closely watched jobs data showed that 187K jobs were added in August which was above the 170K forecast. However July’s job creation was also downwardly revised to 157K.

Average hourly wages rose 0.2% MoM, below the 0.3% forecast and on an annual basis wages growth 4.3%, down from 4.4%. The data shows that as the labor market cools, wage growth is easing, cooling inflationary pressures.

Unemployment rose to 3.8% up from 3.5%.

The payrolls come following a raft of data across the week which has been setting the scene ahead of today’s data.

Figures earlier in this week showed a fall in job openings and softer than expected private payroll job creation. Q2 GDP was downward they revised to 2.1% and inflation figures saves that core PCE the fed's preferred inflation gauge actually ticked higher to 4.2%.

All in all the data has been showing a slight weakening in the US economy at best but by no means shows the US economy is falling off a cliff and validates the view that the Federal Reserve is close he finishing it's rate hiking cycle.

Money markets are currently pricing in just a 90% probability that the Fed will pause rate hikes at the September policy meeting and are pricing in a 56% probability of a pause in the November meeting as well.

Corporate news

Broadcom there's falling free markets after the chipmaker projected current quarter revenue below expectations owing to softening demand.

Dell technologies jumped 10.1% after the PC maker increased its annual guidance for revenue and profit as it benefits from the AI boom.

Lululemon games 2% free open after the yoga wear maker reported a solid start to its third quarter and raised it annual profit and revenue forecasts for a second.

Nasdaq 100 forecast – technical analysis

The Nasdaq100 has recovered from 14550 the August low, pushing above the 50 sma and the multi-week falling trendline resistance to almost make back all of early Augusts’ losses. However, the upward move has shown signs of slowing momentum. Buyers will look for a rise above 15570, the weekly high to extend gains towards 15790 the August high ahead of 15935. On the flip side, support can be seen at 15260 the confluence of the 100 sma and the trendline support.

FX markets – USD falls, GBP rises

The USD is falling after the latest jobs data, which has seen the market rein in rate hike expectations. The falling inflationary pressures means peak rates could be near,

EURUSD is rising despite weak manufacturing PMI data, which showed that manufacturing activity shrank again in August, with new orders tumbling to the lowest level on record. Stagflation concerns are rising amid stalling growth and sticky inflation.

GBPUSD edging higher on a weaker USD and despite UK manufacturing activity shrinking in August. the manufacturing PMI payments 43 down from 45.3 in July. The data comes after Bank of England chief economist Huw Pill warned that interest rates many stay higher for longer in order to tame insulation.

EUR/USD +0.20% at 1.0867

GBP/USD +0.25% at 1.2680

 

Oil set for a weekly rise

Oil prices are rising and it's on crack the burger week again snapping a two week losing streak, well finding support from expectations of tighter supplies.

Saudi Arabia is expected to extend its 1,000,000 barrels per day oil production since into October, prolonging the output cuts by OPEC+ to support prices.

Russia has also agreed with a path partners to cut oil exports, according to comments by Prime Minister Alexander Novak, yesterday.

 

WTI crude trades +0.8% at $80.60

Brent trades  +0.8% at $82.84.56

 

The information on this web site is not targeted at the general public of any particular country. It is not intended for distribution to residents in any country where such distribution or use would contravene any local law or regulatory requirement. The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on our analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.

Futures, Options on Futures, Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Losses can exceed your deposits. Increasing leverage increases risk. Spot Gold and Silver contracts are not subject to regulation under the U.S. Commodity Exchange Act. Contracts for Difference (CFDs) are not available for US residents. Before deciding to trade forex, commodity futures, or digital assets, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained herein is intended as general information about the subject matter covered and is provided with the understanding that we do not provide any investment, legal, or tax advice. You should consult with appropriate counsel or other advisors on all investment, legal, or tax matters. References to FOREX.com or GAIN Capital refer to StoneX Group Inc. and its subsidiaries. Please read Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options.

FOREX.com is a registered FCM and RFED with the CFTC and member of the National Futures Association (NFA # 0339826). Forex trading involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Full Disclosures and Risk Warning. Increased leverage increases risk.

GAIN Capital Group LLC (dba FOREX.com) 30 Independence Blvd, Suite 300 (3rd floor), Warren, NJ 07059, USA. GAIN Capital Group LLC is a wholly-owned subsidiary of StoneX Group Inc.

© FOREX.COM 2025