Japanese Yen Technical Forecast: USD/JPY Bulls Eye 147

Japanese Yen Technical Forecast: USD/JPY Weekly Trade Levels

• Japanese Yen poised for a third weekly decline- USD/JPY at fresh yearly highs
• USD/JPY rally now within striking distance of key resistance hurdle
• Resistance 146.93-147.68, ~148.70s, 151.90-152- Support ~140, ~138.18, 136.49-137.24

The Japanese Yen is poised to mark a third consecutive weekly loss against the US Dollar with USD/JPY breaking to fresh yearly highs mid-week. The rally is now within striking distance of a key resistance hurdle and the focus is on a reaction into this technical confluence in the days ahead. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the USD/JPY weekly technical chart.

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Japanese Yen Price Chart – USD/JPY Weekly

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; USD/JPY on TradingView

Technical Outlook: In the June edition of the Japanese Yen Technical Forecast, we noted that, “A breakout of the yearly opening-range in USD/JPY is now testing the first major resistance hurdle. From a trading standpoint, losses should be limited to 136.49 IF price is heading higher on this stretch…” A two-week sell-off plunged nearly 5.3% off those highs with price registering a low at 138.80 before rebounding off the 52-week moving average.  

The rally is now threatening a breakout of confluent uptrend resistance around the 145-handle with a more significant hurdle seen just higher at 146.94-147.69 – a region defined by the 1.618% Fibonacci  extension of the yearly advance and the objective 2022 high-week reversal close. A breach / close above this threshold would be needed to fuel the next leg higher towards channel resistance (currently ~148.70s) and 1989 & 2022 highs / 1986 low at 151.90-152- and area of interest for possible topside exhaustion / price inflection If reached.

Weekly support rests along the channel line (currently ~140) backed by the 52-week moving average (~138.18). Key support / bullish invalidation now raised to 136.49-137.24- a region defined by the February high-close / the 38.2% retracement of the 2022 decline and the July swing low.

Bottom line: USD/JPY is attempting to breach a major technical confluence here at the 145-handle- watch the weekly close for guidance. From a trading standpoint, the focus remains on possible exhaustion / price inflection on stretch toward 147 IF reached. Note that a weekly-close back below 145 could mark exhaustion and fuel a larger correction- losses should be limited to channel support for the yearly uptrend to remain viable. I’ll publish an updated Japanese Yen short-term outlook once we get further clarity on the near-term USD/JPY technical trade levels.

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--- Written by Michael Boutros, Sr Technical Strategist with FOREX.com

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