Gold short-term price outlook: XAU/USD bulls run out of breath

Gold technical outlook: XAU/USD short-term trade levels

Gold price struggle into uptrend resistance- constructive above 1912
XAU/USD immediate focus on breakout of weekly / monthly opening-ranges
Resistance 2035, 2050, 2066/75 (key)– support 1969, 1945, 1912/18 (critical)

Gold prices surged nearly 2.8% into the April open with the recent technical breakout stalling into uptrend resistance. The threat of a larger pullback remains while within the monthly opening-range. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the XAU/USD short-term technical chart.

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Gold Price Chart – XAU/USD Daily

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; XAU/USD on TradingView

Technical Outlook: In last month’s Gold short-term price outlook we noted that XAU/USD was, “in consolidation just below uptrend resistance – breakout pending.” A breakout into the April open ripped higher with price turning just ahead of the 2020 high-day close at 2035 on building momentum divergence. The move suggests a possible failed breakout of multi-month uptrend resistance with a well-defined monthly opening-range now taking shape just above the objective April open at 1969.

Gold Price Chart – XAU/USD 240min

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; XAU/USD on TradingView

Notes: A closer look at gold price action shows XAU/USD testing former triangle resistance as support yesterday with the weekly opening-range now putting the immediate focus on a breakout of the 1982-2028 range for guidance here.

Initial support rests with the monthly open at 1969 - an area of interest for possible downside exhaustion IF reached. A break / daily close below this threshold would suggest a larger correction may be underway with such a scenario exposing subsequent objectives at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement the late-February advance at 1945 and key support at 1912/18- a region defined by the February & 2021 high-day closes. Losses should be limited to this threshold IF gold is heading higher on this stretch.

Initial resistance steady at 2035 backed by the 2022 high-day close at 2050. Critical resistance is eyed at the record high-close / swing high at 2066/75 – look for a larger reaction there IF reached.

Bottom line: An attempted breakout of uptrend resistance may be faltering here in gold with the threat for a larger pullback while below 2035. From at trading standpoint, the immediate focus is on a breakout of the weekly / monthly opening-ranges for guidance– be on the lookout for an exhaustion low ahead of 1912 on pullbacks with a close above 2050 needed to fuel a test of the record highs and beyond. Stay nimble here. Review my latest Gold weekly technical forecast for a longer-term look at the XAU/USD trade levels.

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--- Written by Michael Boutros, Sr Technical Strategist with FOREX.com

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