Gold Short-term Outlook: XAU/USD Bulls Attempt to Secure 2300

Gold Technical Outlook: XAU/USD Short-term Trade Levels

• Gold rips into April open- breakout approaching technical resistance ahead of NFP
• XAU/USD rally may be vulnerable near-term, but outlook remains constructive
• Resistance 2309 (key), ~2340s, ~2360s– Support ~2260s, 2223, 2180 (key)

Gold prices have rallied for seven of the past eight days with the explosive breakout in XAU/USD now extending more than 16% off the February / 2024 lows. Price has already rallied nearly 3.7% since the start of April with the advance now approaching confluent uptrend resistance at fresh record highs. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the XAU/USD short-term technical charts.

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Gold Price Chart – XAU/USD Daily

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; XAU/USD on TradingView

Technical Outlook: In last month’s Gold Short-term Price Outlook we noted that XAU/USD may be vulnerable into uptrend resistance but, “the trade remains constructive while within this formation. From a trading standpoint, losses should be limited to 2114 IF price is heading higher on this stretch with a close above 2180 needed to fuel the next leg in price.” Gold fell nearly 2.2% off the highs to register an intraday low at 2146 before rebounding sharply.

The late-March breakout has now rallied more than 7.3% off those lows with price now approaching confluent uptrend resistance at the 100% extension of the October advance at 2309- looking for possible price inflection into this zone.

Gold Price Chart – XAU/USD 240min

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; XAU/USD on TradingView

Notes: A closer look at gold price action highlights shows XAU/USD continuing to trade within the confines of the ascending pitchfork formation extending off the February low we’ve been tracking for months now. Note that the upper parallel converges on 2309 over the next few days- watch the weekly close here.

A topside breach / close above keeps the focus on the upper parallels, currently near ~2340s and 2360s. Keep in mind gold is trading into record highs daily and most of the resistance objectives from here are derived off slope and measured moves.

Initial support rests along the 75% parallel (currently ~2260s) backed by the monthly-open at 2223 and the 61.8% Fibonacci extension at 2180- We’ll reserve this threshold has our bullish invalidation level with a close below the 2023 high at 2146 ultimately needed to put the bears back in control.

Bottom line: The gold breakout is approaching confluent uptrend resistance and while the broader outlook remains constructive, the immediate advance may be vulnerable here. From at trading standpoint, a good zone to reduce portions of long-exposure / raise protective stops – losses should be limited by 2180 IF gold is heading higher on this stretch with a weekly close above 2309 needed to fuel the next leg.

Note that we get the release of key US employment data tomorrow with March non-farm payrolls on tap. Price is just now carving the monthly opening-range just below resistance- stay nimble into the release and watch the weekly close here for guidance. Review my latest Gold Weekly Technical Forecast for a closer look at the longer-term look at the XAU/USD trade levels.  

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--- Written by Michael Boutros, Sr Technical Strategist with FOREX.com

Follow Michael on X @MBForex