Gold price forecast: XAU/USD threat of larger correction looms

Gold technical forecast: XAU/USD weekly trade levels

• Gold price rally falters at confluent resistance- plunges 3.8% off the highs
• XAU/USD remains susceptible to pullback while below high-week close
• Gold resistance 2004, 2035, 2075 – support 1926, 1883 (key), 1807/12

Gold prices are attempting to snap a two-week losing streak after at 13.5% rally off the yearly lows in XAU/USD faltered just shy of the record highs. Wile the broader outlook remains constructive, building divergence into technical resistance highlights the threat of a corrective pullback within the uptrend. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the XAU/USD weekly technical chart heading into the close of the month.

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Gold Price Chart – XAU/USD Weekly

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; XAU/USD on TradingView

Technical Outlook: In last month’s Gold Weekly Price Forecast we note that XAU/USD had, responded to uptrend resistance and that, “From a trading standpoint, losses should be limited to 1858 IF price is heading higher on this stretch with a close above channel resistance needed to mark resumption.” It’s been over a month with gold prices continuing to trade just below confluent uptrend resistance and the threat for a larger setback remains while below the yearly high-week close at 2004.

Initial weekly support rests with the 2022 April high-week reversal close / January high-close at 1926/28 with broader bullish invalidation now raise to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the September advance at 1883.

A topside breach / weekly close above 2004 is needed to fuel another test of the record high-week close at 2035 and the record high at 2075- look for a larger reaction there IF reached.

Bottom line: Gold is testing confluent uptrend resistance on building momentum divergence and while the broader outlook is still constructive, the risk for a larger correction remains while below the high-week close. From a trading standpoint, we’re on the lookout for an exhaustion low heading into May trade with a close above 2035 needed to mark resumption. Review my latest Gold short-term technical outlook for a closer look at the near-term XAU/USD technical trade levels.

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--- Written by Michael Boutros, Sr Technical Strategist with FOREX.com