Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD Bulls in Retreat Post-Trump

Gold Technical Forecast: XAU/USD Weekly Trade Levels

Gold reversal from trend resistance at record highs intensifies-marks third weekly loss
XAU/USD post-Trump sell-off testing initial support- threat remains for larger correction
Resistance 2658/72, 2736 (key), 2804– Support 2532, 2450/82, 2324/41 (key)

Gold prices marked a third weekly loss on Friday with XAU/USD off more than 4.5% for the week. A reversal off uptrend resistance is testing initial trend support and while the threat remains for a larger bull-market correction, the immediate decline may be vulnerable into the weekly open. Battle lines drawn on the XAU/USD weekly technical chart.

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Gold Price Chart – XAU/USD Weekly

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; XAU/USD on TradingView

Technical Outlook: In my last Gold Weekly Price Forecast we noted that, “A seven-week rally in Gold takes XAU/USD into proposed uptrend resistance this week and while the broader outlook remains constructive, the immediate advance may be vulnerable into the November open. From a trading standpoint, a good zone to reduce portions of long-exposure / raise protective stops- losses should be limited to 2600 IF price is heading higher on this stretch with a close above 2804 needed to fuel the next leg of the rally.”

Gold prices plunged more than 9% off those highs with XAU/USD marking a third consecutive-weekly decline on Friday. The sell-off exhausted into the median-line of the 2023 uptrend on Thursday with price unable to mark a weekly close below. Note that weekly momentum has now broken back below 70 with RSI reversing from the overbought condition for the first time since the August breakout. The focus is on possible inflection off this slope with the medium-term risk still weighted to the downside while below the record high-week close (HWC) at 2736.

A break below the August high at 2532 would expose subsequent support objectives at the April high / 38.2% retracement of the yearly range at 2450/82 and 2324/41- a region defined by the 52-week moving average, the May high-week reversal close and the 38.2% retracement of the late-2022 advance. Losses below this threshold would invalidate the multi-year uptrend and suggest a more significant high was registered last month (bullish invalidation).

Initial weekly resistance is now eyed with the September HWC / 1.618% extension at 2658/72 with a breach / close above 2736 ultimately needed to mark uptrend resumption. Subsequent resistance objectives eyed at 2804 and 2900 / the upper parallel.

Bottom line: A reversal off uptrend resistance is testing initial trend support at the median-line- risk for near-term price inflection here. From a trading standpoint, a good zone to reduce portions of short-exposure / lower protective stops- rallies should be limited to 2658 IF price is heading lower on this stretch with a close below 2531 needed to fuel the next leg of the correction.

Ultimately, we’re on the lookout for an exhaustion low ahead of the lower parallel in the coming weeks with a close above 2736 need to mark resumption of the multi-year uptrend. Review my latest Gold Short-term Outlook for a closer look at the near-term XAU/USD technical trade levels.

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--- Written by Michael Boutros, Sr Technical Strategist with FOREX.com

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