Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD Bulls Charge Resistance

Gold Technical Forecast: XAU/USD Weekly Trade Levels

Gold prices rebound from multi-year trend support- marks second weekly advance
XAU/USD rally within striking distance of key resistance- U.S. CPI on tap next week
Resistance 2736/47 (key), 2804, 2900– Support 2607, 2532, 2450/82 (key)

Gold prices closed a fourth consecutive daily advance on Friday with the post-NFP rally posting a weekly advance of nearly 1.9%. A rebound off slope support is attempting to mark resumption of the broader uptrend with key resistance now in view. Battle lines drawn on the XAU/USD weekly technical chart.

Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this gold setup and more. Join live on Monday’s at 8:30am EST.

Gold Price Chart – XAU/USD Weekly

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; XAU/USD on TradingView

Technical Outlook: In my last Gold Weekly Price Forecast we noted that the XAU/USD was, “trading into a multi-year slope support into the start of the December and the focus is on a reaction off the median-line early in the month. From a trading standpoint, the focus remains on a breakout of the 2607-2736 range for near-term directional guidance.” A two-week advance has now rallied more than 4.4% off the December lows with a rebound off the median-line now threatening a stretch towards uptrend resistance.

The focus is on the record high-week close / 2024 high-close at 2736/47- a breach / close above this threshold is needed to mark uptrend resumption towards subsequent resistance objectives at the 2.618% extension of the 2022 range-break at 2804 and the 2900. The next major technical confluence is eyed at 3000/31- a region defined by the 2.272% extension of the 2011 decline and the 1.618% extension of the 2022 advance. Look for a larger reaction there IF reached.

Initial weekly support rests with the median-line and is backed closely by the 61.8% retracement at 2607- a break / weekly close below this threshold would suggest a larger correction is underway within the broader uptrend with initial support objectives seen at the August high at 2531 and 2450/82- a region defined by the April swing high and the 38.2% retracement of the 2024 trading range. We will reserve this threshold as our bullish invalidation level and losses would need to be limited to this slope for the late-2023 uptrend to remain viable.

Bottom line: Gold has rebounded off uptrend support into the start of the month with the advance now within striking distance of pivotal resistance. From a trading standpoint, look to reduce portions of long-exposure / raise protective stops on a stretch towards 2736- losses should be limited the median-line IF price is heading higher on this stretch with a breach above the high-close needed to mark uptrend resumption.

Keep in mind we get the release of key US inflation data next week with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) on tap Wednesday. Stay nimble into the release and watch the weekly closes here for guidance. Review my latest Gold Short-term Outlook for a closer look at the near-term XAU/USD technical trade levels.

Key US Economic Data Releases

Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.

Active Weekly Technical Charts

--- Written by Michael Boutros, Sr Technical Strategist with FOREX.com

Follow Michael on X @MBForex

The information on this web site is not targeted at the general public of any particular country. It is not intended for distribution to residents in any country where such distribution or use would contravene any local law or regulatory requirement. The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on our analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.

Futures, Options on Futures, Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Losses can exceed your deposits. Increasing leverage increases risk. Spot Gold and Silver contracts are not subject to regulation under the U.S. Commodity Exchange Act. Contracts for Difference (CFDs) are not available for US residents. Before deciding to trade forex, commodity futures, or digital assets, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained herein is intended as general information about the subject matter covered and is provided with the understanding that we do not provide any investment, legal, or tax advice. You should consult with appropriate counsel or other advisors on all investment, legal, or tax matters. References to FOREX.com or GAIN Capital refer to StoneX Group Inc. and its subsidiaries. Please read Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options.

FOREX.com is a registered FCM and RFED with the CFTC and member of the National Futures Association (NFA # 0339826). Forex trading involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Full Disclosures and Risk Warning. Increased leverage increases risk.

GAIN Capital Group LLC (dba FOREX.com) 30 Independence Blvd, Suite 300 (3rd floor), Warren, NJ 07059, USA. GAIN Capital Group LLC is a wholly-owned subsidiary of StoneX Group Inc.