Open an Account
☰
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 76% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Open an Account
✖

Gold price fails to defend March opening range

Article By: ,  Strategist
March 7, 2023 2:40 PM

Gold Price Outlook

The price of gold appears to be reversing ahead of the 50-Day SMA ($1870) as it initiates a series of lower highs and lows, and bullion may continue to give back the rebound from the February low ($1805) as it fails to defend the opening range for March.

Gold price fails to defend March opening range

It seems as though the price of gold will no longer track the positive slope in the moving average as it fails to trade back above the moving average, and the precious metal may continue to trade to fresh monthly lows as recent remarks from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell fuels speculation for higher US interest rates.

During the semi-annual testimony in front of Congress, Chairman Powell warned that ‘ongoing increases in the target range for the federal funds rate will be appropriate,’ with the prepared remarks going onto say that ‘the latest economic data have come in stronger than expected, which suggests that the ultimate level of interest rates is likely to be higher than previously anticipated.’

Register here for the next Live Economic Coverage event with David Song

 

FOREX.com Economic Calendar

As a result, the upcoming update to the US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report may keep the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) on track to implement additional rate hikes as the economy is projected to add 200K jobs in February. A positive development may sap the appeal of gold as it puts pressure on the Fed to extend the hiking-cycle, and it remains to be seen if Chairman Powell and Co. will project a steeper path for US interest rates as the central bank is slated to update the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP).

With that said, the price of gold may face headwinds ahead of the Fed rate decision on March 22 as market participants brace for a more restrictive policy, and bullion may continue to give back the rebound from the February low ($1805) as it fails to defend the opening range for March.

Gold Price Chart – XAU/USD Daily

Chart Prepared by David Song, Strategist; Gold Price on TradingView

  • The price of gold registers a fresh monthly low ($1816) after struggling to push above $1859 (23.6% Fibonacci retracement), with a break/close below $1812 (61.8% Fibonacci extension) raising the scope for a test of the February low ($1805).
  • Next area of interest comes in around $1789 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement), with a move below the 200-Day SMA ($1776) opening up the December low ($1766).
  • However, the price of gold may trade within a defined range if it manages to hold above $1812 (61.8% Fibonacci extension), with a move above the 1837 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement) to $1843 (50% Fibonacci retracement) region raising the scope for a move towards $1859 (23.6% Fibonacci retracement).

--- Written by David Song, Strategist

Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong

 

The information on this web site is not targeted at the general public of any particular country. It is not intended for distribution to residents in any country where such distribution or use would contravene any local law or regulatory requirement. The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on our analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.

Futures, Options on Futures, Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Losses can exceed your deposits. Increasing leverage increases risk. Spot Gold and Silver contracts are not subject to regulation under the U.S. Commodity Exchange Act. Contracts for Difference (CFDs) are not available for US residents. Before deciding to trade forex, commodity futures, or digital assets, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained herein is intended as general information about the subject matter covered and is provided with the understanding that we do not provide any investment, legal, or tax advice. You should consult with appropriate counsel or other advisors on all investment, legal, or tax matters. References to FOREX.com or GAIN Capital refer to StoneX Group Inc. and its subsidiaries. Please read Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options.

FOREX.com is a registered FCM and RFED with the CFTC and member of the National Futures Association (NFA # 0339826). Forex trading involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Full Disclosures and Risk Warning. Increased leverage increases risk.

GAIN Capital Group LLC (dba FOREX.com) 30 Independence Blvd, Suite 300 (3rd floor), Warren, NJ 07059, USA. GAIN Capital Group LLC is a wholly-owned subsidiary of StoneX Group Inc.

© FOREX.COM 2025