Forex Technical Focus: US Dollar Majors, Gold, Oil, S&P 500

Weekly Technical Trade Levels on USD Majors, Commodities & Stocks

• Technical setups we are tracking into the weekly open – US Core Inflation on tap
• Next Weekly Strategy Webinar: Monday, June 3 at 8:30am EST
• Review the latest Weekly Strategy Webinars or Stream Live on my YouTube playlist.

In this webinar we take an in-depth look at the technical trade levels for the US Dollar (DXY), Euro (EUR/USD), British Pound (GBP/USD), Australian Dollar (AUD/USD), Canadian Dollar (USD/CAD), Japanese Yen (USD/JPY), Swiss Franc (USD/CHF), Gold (XAU/USD), Silver (XAG/USD), Crude Oil (WTI), S&P 500 (SPX500), Nasdaq (NDX), and Dow Jones (DJI). These are the levels that matter on the technical charts heading into the close of the month.  

US Dollar Price Chart – USD Daily (DXY)

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; DXY on TradingView

The US Dollar Index is trading just above confluent support early in the week at, “104.15/36- a region defined by the December high-close (HC), the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the December rally, the measured head-and-shoulders objective of the April breakdown, and the 200-day moving average.” The immediate focus is on a reaction off this mark with the bears vulnerable while above.

Bottom line: Be on the lookout for possible exhaustion / price inflection into the May lows with a close below 104 needed to suggest a larger trend reversal is underway. Keep in mind we get the release of key US inflation data this week with Core PCE on tap Friday- stay nimble into the monthly cross and watch the weekly close here. Review my latest US Dollar Short-term Outlook for a closer look at the USD near-term technical trade levels.

Oil Price Chart – WTI Daily (USOil)

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; WTI on TradingView

In last week’s webinar we highlighted that oil was testing a major resistance level with key support, “steady at the 100% extension of the April decline / the 50% retracement at 77.49/66.” Oil broke through support for a two-day stint before reversing sharply higher with a breakout of the April downtrend now once again testing key resistance at 79.91-80.31- a region defined by the 200-day moving average, 38.2% retracement of the December rally, and the 2023 yearly open. Looking for a reaction into this zone IF reached.  

Bottom line: Oil may be attempting to mark a more meaningful low here- Ultimately, a breach / close above 80.31 is needed to suggest a more significant low was registered last week. Initial support now 78.89 with a break / close below 77.74 (the May low-day close) needed to threaten resumption of the April downtrend. Review my latest Oil Price Forecast for a closer look at the longer-term WTI technical trade levels.

Economic Calendar – Key USD Data Releases

Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.

--- Written by Michael Boutros, Sr Technical Strategist with FOREX.com

Follow Michael on X @MBForex