Matt Weller CFA, CMT

The US Dollar Index has shown a tendency to fall during Republican presidencies and rise during Democratic presidencies dating back to George H. W. Bush in 1988

Broad stock market indices like the S&P 500 usually rise, regardless of who is in office.

Democratic presidential election wins have led to an average gold price increase of +1.5%, while Republican wins brought a -5.5% decrease on average between election day and inauguration day

A hot CPI report could lead traders to start asking whether the Fed’s interest rate cutting cycle may be completed already, complicating the path forward for a central bank that has clearly been hinting that the easing cycle isn’t done yet.

Leading indicators point to a roughly as-expected reading in this month’s NFP report, with headline job growth potentially coming in somewhere in the 150-200K range