Matt Simpson
Matt Simpson
Market Analyst
Expertise: FX Macro, Technical Analysis, Sentiment
Trading Style: Mean reversion/inflection points, the occasional trend
Experience:
• Over 10 years analysis and trading forex, indices, gold and oil, and worked for several brokers across the APAC region including Australia and Singapore
• Experienced in system design and testing, professional trade signals, trade coaching and education
• Regularly quoted in the financial media such as Reuters, Bloomberg, CNBC
• A certified financial technician (CFTe) and hold a diploma of the Society of Technical Analysts (MSTA)
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AUD/USD joins the yuan for the ride, though FX volatility cuts both ways
It has been a volatile week for FX traders so far this week, and one which has benefitted AUD/USD and yuan bulls. While both could extend their moves if US-Sino relations remain as warm as they first appear, traders would also be wise to remember volatility cuts both ways. Especially when Trump is waving his executive-order pen around.
COT report – 20 Jan 2025
The commitment of traders (COT) report shows how large speculators are positioned across futures markets on the CME exchange.
AUD/USD weekly outlook: The Aussie snaps a 6-week losing streak
The correlations between AUD/USD, the yuan and USD remain in play. But with the latter two stalling at important resistance levels, perhaps AUD/USD could achieve a bounce.
USD/JPY, AUD/JPY under pressure amid yen strength, dovish Fed
The Japanese yen was again the strongest currency, which rose against all of its FX major peers. Looking through the charts suggests there could be further downside for USD/JPY and AUD/JPY.
WTI crude oil inflates its way into 2025, eyes break of $80
Concerns over rising inflationary pressures were building as we headed towards the end of 2024. And the rapid acceleration of crude oil prices this year is doing nothing to alleviate those concerns.
Bears awaken USD/JPY from its lull, Nikkei bulls eye bounce
Bearish momentum intensified for USD/JPY on Wednesday thanks to a softer core CPI print, and there could be further losses to come looking at price action. And that could pave the way for a cheeky bounce on the Nikkei.
Gold shakeout may not be over, though downside could be limited
Last week I warned that gold’s gains appeared dubious, and that they could sucker-punch bulls. And it seems they did. And while I suspect another leg or two lower, we could find its downside limited when we weigh up the supporting factors for gold.
USD/CNH stalls below 2023 high, China A50 rebounds from the 200 SMA
Where the US dollar index goes, USD/CNH follows. And if we're treated to a softer set of US CPI figures, it could prompt a pullback on both. This also coincides with a series of bullish clues on the China A50 index.
EUR/AUD taps out, Wall Street could throw the ASX a lifeline (for now)
They may have come close to testing the limits of my bearish bias, but we finally saw momentum turn south for EUR/AUD and the ASX 200. However, with Wall Street indices looking steady above key support levels, a cheeky bounce could be due before the anticipated losses resume.
Tentative signs of reversals for EUR/USD, commodity FX: COT report
The macro drivers that fuelled the Trump trade in Q4 may need some sort of booster to be sustained. And futures positioning is already displaying early signs of caution among EUR/USD and commodity FX bears.
AUD/USD weekly outlook: 4-year low heading into US CPI and AU jobs
Another strong NFP report sent AUD/USD to a 4-year low on Friday, which was already under pressure following renewed bets of RBA cuts thanks to a soft CPI print for Australia. AU jobs and US CPI are the key data points for Aussie traders this week.