Fed, USD Majors, Gold, Oil, Bitcoin, S&P 500 Weekly Technical Outlook

Weekly Technical Trade Levels on USD Majors, Commodities & Stocks

• Technical setups we are tracking into the weekly open / Fed
• Next Weekly Strategy Webinar: Monday, March 25 at 8:30am EST
• Review the latest Weekly Strategy Webinars on my YouTube playlist.

In this webinar we take an in-depth look at the technical trade levels for the US Dollar (DXY), Euro (EUR/USD), British Pound (GBP/USD), Australian Dollar (AUD/USD), Canadian Dollar (USD/CAD), Japanese Yen (USD/JPY), US Treasury Yields, Swiss Franc (USD/CHF), Gold (XAU/USD), Crude Oil (WTI), Silver (XAG/USD), S&P 500 (SPX500), Nasdaq (NDX), Dow Jones (DJI) and Bitcoin (BTC/USD). These are the levels that matter on the technical charts heading into a flurry of central bank interest rate decisions this week with the BoJ, RBA, Fed and BoE on tap.

Gold Price Chart – XAU/USD Weekly

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; XAU/USD on TradingView

The gold price breakout exhausted into Fibonacci resistance this month at the 61.8% extension of the October rally at 2180. While the trade does remain constructive, the immediate advance may be vulnerable here and the focus is on a test of support in the weeks ahead. Initial weekly support rests at the former record high at 2146 and is backed closely by the median-line – losses should be limited to 2075 IF price is heading higher with a breach / close above 2180 needed to mark resumption towards the 100% extension at 2277. Watch the weekly close here.

Oil Price Chart – WTI Weekly

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; WTI on TradingView

The crude price rally is now approaching confluent resistance near 83.28-84.57- a region defined by the 2021 high-week close and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the September decline. Note that both uptrend & longer-term downtrend resistance converge on this threshold over the next few weeks and a topside breach / close above would be needed to suggest a larger trend reversal is underway towards the 2023 high-week close (HWC) at 90.79.

Bottom line: Risk for some topside exhaustion into this pivot zone. From a trading standpoint, look to reduce portions of long-exposure / raise protective stops on stretch towards 84.57. Initial weekly support now rests with the 52-week moving average (currently ~77.88) and is backed by the December channel slope. The trade remains constructive while within this formation- stay nimble here and watch the weekly close for guidance.

Bitcoin Price Chart – BTC/USD Weekly

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; Bitcoin on TradingView

An explosive breakout of uptrend resistance in Bitcoin fueled a rally of more than 91.5% off the January low. The advance faltered last week at a confluent resistance zone we’ve been tracking for months now at the 2021 form record high / high-week close (HWC) at 65510-69000. BTC/USD failed to mark a weekly close above this threshold and leaves the immediate advance vulnerable here near-term.

A basic 23.6% retracement of the 2022 rally converges on the objective monthly open at 60032-61161 with key support / broader bullish invalidation now raised to 51518. A topside breach / close above this key pivot zone is needed to fuel the next leg higher in price with subsequent resistance objectives eyed at the 100% extension of the 2019 advance at 81310.

Economic Calendar – Key USD Data Releases

Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.

--- Written by Michael Boutros, Sr Technical Strategist with FOREX.com

Follow Michael on X @MBForex