Euro technical forecast: has EUR/USD topped?

Euro technical forecast: EUR/USD weekly trade levels

Euro advance extends for a third week- rally testing multi-year downtrend
EUR/USD bulls vulnerable while below long-term slope resistance
Resistance 1.1033, 1.1148, 1.1275– support 1.0793, 1.0705 (key), 1.0456/61

Euro is attempting to mark a third consecutive weekly advance with EUR/USD eyeing the 2023 range high. While the medium-term outlook remains constructive, the advance may be vulnerable here as price tests long-term downtrend resistance. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the EUR/USD weekly technical chart.

Discussing this Euro setup and more in the Weekly Strategy Webinars on Monday’s at 8:30am EST.

Euro Price Chart – EUR/USD Weekly

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; EUR/USD on TradingView

Technical Outlook: In last month’s Euro technical forecast, we noted that EUR/USD had failed to mount yearly-open resistance at 1.0705 with, “key weekly support at 1.0412/61- a region defined by the 52-week moving average and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the September rally.” Euro never made it there with three- weekly attempts registering an intraday low at 1.0516 before reversing sharply higher.

The rally has now extended more than 4.3% off the monthly lows (nearly 4.7% off the January lows) with price failing with precision this week at the 75% parallel of the descending pitchfork formation (2018 & late-2021 highs). The immediate advance may be vulnerable while below this slope in the near-term.

Initial weekly support rests with the 2023 high-week close at 1.0793 with bullish invalidation now raised to the objective yearly open at 1.0705- a break / weekly closes below this threshold could fuel another accelerated drop towards confluent support at 1.0456/61.

Ultimately, a topside breach / weekly close above the yearly opening-range high at 1.1033 would be needed to mark resumption of the uptrend towards the January low-day close at 1.1148 and the 61.8% retracement of the 2021 decline at 1.1275.

Bottom line: A three-week advance in Euro may be vulnerable here at longer-term downtrend resistance. From a trading standpoint, a good zone to reduce long-exposure / raise protective stops- losses should be limited to the yearly open IF price is heading higher on this stretch. Use added caution heading into the April opening-range with US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) on tap into an extended holiday break- stay nimble here. I’ll publish an updated Euro short-term technical outlook once we get further clarity on the near-term EUR/USD technical trade levels.

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--- Written by Michael Boutros, Sr Technical Strategist with FOREX.com

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex

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