Euro Technical Forecast: EUR/USD Snaps 2023– Q4 Levels

Euro Technical Forecast: EUR/USD Weekly Trade Levels

Euro breaks below yearly-open support- plummets into 2023 range low
EUR/USD risk for near-term recovery into Q4 open- outlook bearish sub-1.08
Resistance 1.0645, 1.06836-1.0704, 1.0785– Support 1.0483, 1.0352, 1.0201

Euro plunged for nine of the past ten-weeks with EUR/USD testing the yearly opening-range lows this week. While the broader outlook remains weighted to the downside, the immediate decline may be vulnerable as we head into the October / Q4 open. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the EUR/USD weekly technical chart.

Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this EUR/USD technical setup and more. Join live on Monday’s at 8:30am EST.

Euro Price Chart – EUR/USD Weekly

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; EUR/USD on TradingView

Technical Outlook: In my last Euro Technical Forecast, we noted that EUR/USD was testing yearly-open support and that a break below this, “key support zone would expose a test of the 52-week moving average for the first time since December and the objective 2023 low-week close at ~1.0636/45- weakness below this threshold would threaten another bout of accelerated losses towards the yearly lows at 1.0483.” Euro held support for nearly two-weeks before breaking sharply lower with price registering a low at 1.0488 this week- risk for downside exhaustion?

Initial weekly resistance is now eyed at 1.0645 and is backed closely by the 52-week moving average / 2023 yearly open at 1.0683-1.0704. Medium-term bearish invalidation is now lowered to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the yearly range at 1.0785.

A break / close below the yearly opening-range lows (1.0483) would threaten another accelerated sell-off with such a scenario exposing the 2016 low at 1.0352 and the 61.8% retracement of the 2022 advance at 1.02- look for a larger reaction there IF reached.

Bottom line: Euro stretched into the yearly range lows this week and while the risk remains weighted to the downside, the bears may be vulnerable into the Q4 open. From a trading standpoint, rallies should be limited to the 1.08-handle IF price is heading lower on this stretch with a close below 1.0483 needed to mark resumption of the broader downtrend.

Keep in mind we are heading into the close of the week, month, and quarter today- watch the close and stay nimble into the October open with US non-farm payrolls on Friday likely to offer some guidance here. I’ll publish an updated Euro Short-term Technical Outlook once we get further clarity on the near-term EUR/USD technical trade levels.

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--- Written by Michael Boutros, Sr Technical Strategist with FOREX.com

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex

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