Euro Technical Forecast: EUR/USD Set to Snap 2023

Euro Technical Forecast: EUR/USD Weekly Trade Levels

• Euro poised for an eight-week decline- attempting to break yearly uptrend
• EUR/USD plunges into confluent support around the 2023 yearly open
• Resistance 1.0785, 1.0947, 1.1058-1.1108– Support 1.0667-1.0705, 1.0636/45, 1.0483

Euro is poised to mark an eighth-consecutive weekly sell-off with EUR/USD plummeting more than 5% off the yearly high. The plunge snaps the yearly gains for Euro and takes price into a key pivot zone around the 2023 low-week close- risk for possible price inflection in the days ahead. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the EUR/USD weekly technical chart.

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Euro Price Chart – EUR/USD Weekly

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; EUR/USD on TradingView

Technical Outlook: In last month’s Euro Technical Forecast, we noted that EUR/USD had, “turned from confluent resistance at the top of the yearly uptrend.” The focus was on support at, “the 61.8% retracement of the yearly range at 1.0785 and the March channel line. Ultimately, a break / close below 2023 low week close / objective yearly open at 1.0667-1.0705 (bullish invalidation) would be needed to suggest a larger trend reversal is underway…” Euro held Fibonacci support for over two-weeks before finally breaking yesterday with EUR/USD registering a low at 1.0706 before rebounding- risk for downside exhaustion / price inflection into this threshold.

Initial weekly resistance is eyed back at 1.0785 followed by the August high-week close / last week’s high at ~1.0947. Key resistance / bearish invalidation now lowered to the 61.8% retracement of the July sell-off / high-week close at 1.1058-1.1108.

Note that a break / close below this key support zone would expose a test of the 52-week moving average for the first time since December and the objective 2023 low-week close at ~1.0636/45- weakness below this threshold would threaten another bout of accelerated losses towards the yearly lows at 1.0483.

Bottom line: An eight-week sell-off takes EUR/USD into key support around the objective 2023 yearly open- looking for a possible exhaustion low in the days ahead. From a trading standpoint a good zone to reduce short-exposure / lower protective stops – rallies should be limited to 1.0947 IF price is heading lower on this stretch with a close below 1.0636 needed to fuel the next leg lower. I’ll publish an updated Euro Short-term Technical Outlook once we get further clarity on the near-term EUR/USD technical trade levels.

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--- Written by Michael Boutros, Sr Technical Strategist with FOREX.com

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