Euro Technical Forecast: EUR/USD Rally Vulnerable to ECB, Powell, NFP

Euro Technical Forecast: EUR/USD Weekly Trade Levels

Euro rally off support stalls into yearly moving-average – ECB, Powell, NFPs on tap
EUR/USD bulls may be vulnerable into March- focus on breakout of February range
Resistance 1.0942, 1.1038, 1.1108– Support 1.0704/23 (key), 1.0587, 1.0483

Euro closed the month of February down just 0.21% despite a monthly-range trading range of nearly 1.9%. A rebound off uptrend support keeps the focus on a breakout of the February range for guidance here and the battle lines are drawn heading into major event risk next week with the ECB, Fed Chair Powell’s semi-annual testimony before congress, and US Non-Farm Payrolls on tap into the March opening-range. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the EUR/USD weekly technical chart.

Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this EUR/USD technical setup and more. Join live on Monday’s at 8:30am EST.

Euro Price Chart – EUR/USD Weekly

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; EUR/USD on TradingView

Technical Outlook: In my last Euro Technical Forecast, we noted that, “From a trading standpoint, the focus is on possible topside exhaustion ahead of 1.0942 IF price is heading lower on this stretch with a close below 1.0704 needed to mark resumption of the December downtrend.” The EUR/USD outlook remains unchanged, and the focus is on this recovery off confluent uptrend support.

Weekly resistance stands at the January high-week close (HWC) near 1.0942 backed by the December HWC / 2024 yearly-open at 1.1038- a breach / weekly close above this threshold is needed to suggest a more significant breakout is underway towards the 2023 HWC at 1.1108 and the next key technical structure at 1.1228/75.

Initial support rests along the 2022 trendline (red) backed by critical support at 1.0704/12- a region define by the 2023 yearly-open, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the October advance, the December swing lows and the May low-week close. “A weekly close below this threshold is needed to invalidate the 2022 uptrend and would threaten another bout of accelerated losses towards the 2023 low-week close (LWC) at 1.0587 and the 2023 opening-range low at 1.0482- both areas of interest for possible downside exhaustion / price inflection IF reached.”

Bottom line: Euro has rebounded from confluent uptrend support with the recovery trading back into the 52-week moving average- the immediate focus remains on a breakout of the February trading range for guidance here. From a trading standpoint, rallies should be limited to the 2021 trendline (blue) IF price is heading lower with a break / weekly close below 1.0704 still needed to invalidate the 2022 uptrend.

Keep in mind the European Central Bank (ECB) interest rate decision, Fed Chair Powell’s semi-annual testimony before congress and NFPs are on tap next week as price is setting the March opening-range- stay nimble here. Review my latest Euro Short-term Technical Outlook for a closer look at the near-term EUR/USD trade levels.

Key Euro / US Economic Data Releases

Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.

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--- Written by Michael Boutros, Sr Technical Strategist with FOREX.com

Follow Michael on X @MBForex

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