Euro Short-term Outlook: EUR/USD Bulls Eye Uptrend Resistance Slope

Euro Technical Outlook: EUR/USD Short-term Trade Levels

Euro surges more than 3.1% off the May lows
EUR/USD breach of June opening-range now testing first major resistance hurdle
Resistance ~1.0955/80, 1.1041, 1.1075/95 (key)- support 1.0909, 1.0842, 1.08

Euro is trading just below technical resistance after a breach of the monthly opening-range and while the near-term EUR/USD outlook remains constructive, the threat rises for possible topside exhaustion into this key slope. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the Euro short-term technical charts.

Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this EUR/USD technical setup and more. Join live on Monday’s at 8:30am EST.

Euro Price Chart – EUR/USD Daily

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; EUR/USD on TradingView

Technical Outlook: In last month’s Euro Short-term Technical Outlook we noted that EUR/USD was, “testing a major support confluence at 1.0705/17- a region defined by the objective yearly open and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the yearly range. Looking for possible price inflection into this threshold.” Price straddled this zone into the June open with a breakout of the monthly opening-range last week fueling a rally of more than 3.1% off the lows.

The rally is now testing former slope support as resistance around the 200% ext of the late-May advance around 1.0955/80- we’re looking for possible inflection off this mark with the broader advance vulnerable while below this slope.

Euro Price Chart – EUR/USD 240min

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; EUR/USD on TradingView

Notes: A closer look at Euro price action shows EUR/USD trading within the confines of an ascending channel formation with the weekly opening-range preserved just below resistance. Initial support rests with the February high-day close at 1.0909 – a break below this channel would threaten a larger pullback towards subsequent support objectives at 1.0842 and the 1.08-handle. Key support now extends to include the June-open at 1.0689-1.0716.

A topside breach / close above this slope would expose subsequent objectives at the yearly high-day close at 1.1041 and 1.1075/95- a region defined by the 78.6% retracement of the 2022 range and the objective yearly high (look for a larger reaction there IF reached for guidance).

It’s worth noting that form an Elliot-wave perspective, the threat remains for a stretch into wave-5 / exhaustion high before a larger correction within the monthly advance. Put simply, don’t chase up here.

Bottom line: The Euro recovery is now testing technical uptrend resistance. From at trading standpoint, a good spot to reduce portions of long-exposure / raise protective stops – the broader monthly advance may be vulnerable while below this key slop. Ultimately, losses should be limited to the 1.08-handle IF price is heading higher on this stretch with a close above this slope keeping the focus on a possible re-test of the yearly highs. Review my latest Euro Weekly Technical Forecast for a closer look at the longer-term EUR/USD trade levels.

Key Economic Data Releases

Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.

Active Short-term Technical Charts

--- Written by Michael Boutros, Sr Technical Strategist with FOREX.com

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex

The information on this web site is not targeted at the general public of any particular country. It is not intended for distribution to residents in any country where such distribution or use would contravene any local law or regulatory requirement. The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on our analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.

Futures, Options on Futures, Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Losses can exceed your deposits. Increasing leverage increases risk. Spot Gold and Silver contracts are not subject to regulation under the U.S. Commodity Exchange Act. Contracts for Difference (CFDs) are not available for US residents. Before deciding to trade forex, commodity futures, or digital assets, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained herein is intended as general information about the subject matter covered and is provided with the understanding that we do not provide any investment, legal, or tax advice. You should consult with appropriate counsel or other advisors on all investment, legal, or tax matters. References to FOREX.com or GAIN Capital refer to StoneX Group Inc. and its subsidiaries. Please read Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options.

FOREX.com is a registered FCM and RFED with the CFTC and member of the National Futures Association (NFA # 0339826). Forex trading involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Full Disclosures and Risk Warning. Increased leverage increases risk.

GAIN Capital Group LLC (dba FOREX.com) 30 Independence Blvd, Suite 300 (3rd floor), Warren, NJ 07059, USA. GAIN Capital Group LLC is a wholly-owned subsidiary of StoneX Group Inc.