Commodities Market News

The commitment of traders (COT) report shows how large speculators are positioned across futures markets on the CME exchange.

Copper and iron ore are on a tear, smashing through resistance levels heading into China’s latest data dump. With key levels in play and Trump’s trade policies looming, could the rally have more fuel in the tank?

Inflation hedges shine despite a strong dollar and elevated yields, but with key resistance levels in play, the Trump tariff threat looms as a make-or-break moment.

Crude Oil Forecast: Improving Chinese economic metrics, geopolitical developments, and declining inventories have pushed crude oil prices back toward the $80 mark. However, oversupply risks remain a key concern for 2025, raising questions about the sustainability of the current uptrend.

The macro drivers that fuelled the Trump trade in Q4 may need some sort of booster to be sustained. And futures positioning is already displaying early signs of caution among EUR/USD and commodity FX bears.

Gold and silver’s early 2025 rally hit a wall, with surging yields and a stronger dollar likely contributing to sharp reversals on Monday. As key support levels come into play, we look at potential trade setups.

Commodity currencies continued to feel the heat of the Trump trade, while asset managers stepped away from stocks in a month usually associated with strong gains. Gold seems likely to remain supported in the current environment, but for now we seem to be in a holding pattern waiting for fresh catalysts to kick off 2025.

Crude Oil, Gold Forecast: Following China’s commitment to a moderately loose monetary policy in 2025, demand sentiment for Chinese oil and gold has surged, pushing crude oil above $70 and gold above $2,700. Middle East tensions continue to reinforce support levels for these commodities as drastic regional developments unfold.

Iron ore and copper shine as China hints at supercharged stimulus, sparking a metals rally hotter than a blast furnace. With CEWC still ahead, could this be just the start of an electrifying run higher?

Large speculators flipped to net-long exposure yen futures for the first time in six weeks. And it did not come without warning from myself or market positioning over the prior two weeks. Bullish exposure is certainly not extreme at just 2.4k contracts, but with odds of a BOJ hike rising and asset managers net-short by just 5.8k contracts, we could be looking at a stronger yen as we head into the new year given the turbulence we may face during Trump’s second term.

We may have seen an important swing low on the yen looking at the change of speculative market positioning. And that could see a much deeper pullback on USD/JPY.

Crude Oil Week Ahead: Crude oil faces volatility risks ahead of the OPEC meeting, now rescheduled for Thursday to accommodate all members and avoid a clash with the Gulf Summit. Sideways price movements persist, leaning towards a bearish bias for 2025.

Gold analysis: After the big sell-off on Monday, I will try to examine what this means for gold in terms of direction in the near-term outlook, purely from a technical point of view.

How could a potential Israel-Lebanon ceasefire impact oil prices and what are the key levels to watch?

While traders pushed net-long exposure to the USD to a 20-week high, there is also been a notable pickup of long yen bets. They're also piling into EUR/USD shorts, which is why I continue to suspect USD/JPY and EUR/USD may converge and move lower.

Crude Oil Week Ahead: Crude oil’s 4-year support level has amplified its importance as supply disruption risks rise again amid the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Meanwhile, OPEC’s upcoming meeting on Sunday could reshape production quotas and influence market dynamics.