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Central Bank 2024 Outlook Preview

Article By: ,  Strategist
December 24, 2023 5:00 PM

This is an excerpt from our full 2024 Central Bank 2024 Outlook report, one of nine detailed reports about what to expect in the coming year.

 

Federal Reserve Outlook 2024

The Federal Reserve appears to be on track to alter the course of monetary policy in 2024 as the central bank says that the ‘policy rate is likely at or near its peak for this tightening cycle.’ As a result, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) may continue to adjust the forward guidance over the coming months as officials ‘do not view it as likely to be appropriate to raise interest rates further.’

 
Source: FOMC

The fresh forecasts from Chairman Jerome Powell and Co. indicate a lower Fed Funds rate in 2024 as the interest rate dot-plot shows a median forecast of 4.6%, and signs of a moderating economy may push the FOMC to normalize monetary policy sooner rather than later in order to avoid a recession.
 
In turn, speculation surrounding the timing and pace of the Fed’s rate-cut cycle may sway foreign exchange rate markets as the Fed prepares US households and businesses for a looming change in regime, but the European Central Bank (ECB) may follow a similar a path as ‘inflation is expected to decline gradually over the course of next year, before approaching the Governing Council’s 2% target in 2025.’

What will a long-awaited shift in monetary policy at the Fed mean for the US dollar? What about the outlooks for the European Central Bank, Bank of England, and Bank of Japan?

Check out our full 2024 Central Bank preview, along with all of our 2024 Outlook guides!

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