Australian Dollar Technical Forecast: AUD/USD Poised for Breakout

Australian Technical Forecast: AUD/USD Weekly Trade Levels

Australian Dollar rallies more than 1.9% off support- trading below multi-year resistance
AUD/USD critical range breakout now in focus- FOMC / RBA rate decisions on tap
Resistance 6794-6818 (key), 6872, 6900- Support 6673/93, 6572(key), 6530

The Australian Dollar rebounded off key support last week with the focus now shifting to a breakout of a pivotal range in AUD/USD. The FOMC and RBA interest rate decisions are on tap over the next two-weeks and once again, the battle lines are drawn for the bulls at the top of a multi-year consolidation pattern. These are the levels that matter on the AUD/USD weekly technical chart.

Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this Aussie setup and more. Join live on Monday’s at 8:30am EST.

Australian Dollar Price Chart – AUD/USD Weekly

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; AUD/USD on TradingView

Technical Outlook: In my last Australian Dollar Technical Forecast we noted AUD/USD had, “rallied into key technical resistance near the yearly highs- risk for possible topside exhaustion / price inflection into this zone in the weeks ahead. From a trading standpoint, a good zone to reduce portions of long-exposure / raise protective stops – losses should be limited to 6673 IF Aussie is heading higher on this stretch…” Aussie plunged nearly 3% off those highs with price registering a low-close at 6670 before rebounding.

Weekly support now rests at 6642/73- a region defined by the 38.2% retracement of the August rally, the 2019 low and the 2008 low-week close. A break below this threshold would threaten a larger setback towards the yearly low-week close (LWC) /52- week moving average at 6571/89 and the 61.8% retracement at 6530- both levels of interest for possible downside exhaustion IF reached.

Critical resistance remains unchanged at 6794-6819- a region defined by the 61.8% extension of the April advance, the objective 2024 yearly open, and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the 2023 decline. Note that the late-2023 consolidation resistance and the 2013 trendlines converge on this threshold over the next few weeks and further highlight the technical significance of this region. A breach / close above is needed to fuel the next leg higher in price towards the December high / 38.2% retracement at 6872, the June 2023 highs at 6900 and 2021 low-week close near 7000.

Bottom line: AUD/USD is trading mid-range heading into the FOMC interest rate decision this week with the immediate focus on a breakout of the 6642-6819 range. From at trading standpoint, losses should be limited to the 52-week moving average IF Aussie is heading for a breakout here.

Both the Fed and the RBA are on tap over the next week- stay nimble into the releases and watch the weekly closes here for guidance. Review my latest Australian Dollar Short-term Outlook for a closer look at the near-term AUD/USD technical trade levels.

Australia / US Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.

Active Weekly Technical Charts

--- Written by Michael Boutros, Sr Technical Strategist with FOREX.com

Follow Michael on X @MBForex

The information on this web site is not targeted at the general public of any particular country. It is not intended for distribution to residents in any country where such distribution or use would contravene any local law or regulatory requirement. The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on our analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.

Futures, Options on Futures, Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Losses can exceed your deposits. Increasing leverage increases risk. Spot Gold and Silver contracts are not subject to regulation under the U.S. Commodity Exchange Act. Contracts for Difference (CFDs) are not available for US residents. Before deciding to trade forex, commodity futures, or digital assets, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained herein is intended as general information about the subject matter covered and is provided with the understanding that we do not provide any investment, legal, or tax advice. You should consult with appropriate counsel or other advisors on all investment, legal, or tax matters. References to FOREX.com or GAIN Capital refer to StoneX Group Inc. and its subsidiaries. Please read Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options.

FOREX.com is a registered FCM and RFED with the CFTC and member of the National Futures Association (NFA # 0339826). Forex trading involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Full Disclosures and Risk Warning. Increased leverage increases risk.

GAIN Capital Group LLC (dba FOREX.com) 30 Independence Blvd, Suite 300 (3rd floor), Warren, NJ 07059, USA. GAIN Capital Group LLC is a wholly-owned subsidiary of StoneX Group Inc.