Australian Dollar Technical Forecast: AUD/USD Bulls Ram Resistance

Australian Technical Forecast: AUD/USD Weekly Trade Levels

Australian Dollar rallies more than 7% off yearly low- three-week rally now testing resistance
AUD/USD risk for near-term exhaustion / price infection- US Inflation data on tap
Resistance 6793-6818 (key), 6872, 7000- Support 6673/93, 6572, 6433 (key)

The Australian Dollar ripped into key technical resistance last week with a three-week rally now testing a major pivot zone around the objective yearly open. The battle lines are drawn for the bulls at the top of a multi-year consolidation pattern. These are the levels that matter on the AUD/USD weekly technical chart.

Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this Aussie setup and more. Join live on Monday’s at 8:30am EST.

Australian Dollar Price Chart – AUD/USD Weekly

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; AUD/USD on TradingView

Technical Outlook: In my last Australian Dollar Technical Forecast we noted AUD/USD had, “defended support at the lower bounds of a multi-year trendline and puts Aussie right back in the middle of the yearly range. From a trading standpoint, losses should be limited to the weekly open IF price is heading higher on this stretch with a close above 6693 needed to suggest a more significant low was registered this week.”

Aussie ripped through this pivot zone last week with the rally now testing key technical resistance at 6794-6819- a region defined by the 61.8% extension of the April advance, the objective 2024 yearly open, and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the 2023 decline. Note that the late-2023 consolidation resistance and the 2013 trendline are positioned just higher and ultimately, a breach / weekly close above the December high / 38.2% retracement at 6871/72 is needed to suggest is larger trend reversal is underway here. Initial resistance objectives eyed near the 2021 low-week close (LWC) at the 70-handle in the event of a breakout.

Initial weekly support now rests back at 6673/93- a region defined by the 2019 low, the 2008 low-week close (LWC) and the May high-week close (HWC). A break / close below this threshold would shift the focus back towards this yearly consolidation pattern – the 52-week moving average currently rests near the yearly LWC at ~6572 with critical support steady at the April LWC at 6433.

Bottom line: AUD/USD has rallied into key technical resistance near the yearly highs- risk for possible topside exhaustion / price inflection into this zone in the weeks ahead. From a trading standpoint, a good zone to reduce portions of long-exposure / raise protective stops – losses should be limited to 6673 IF Aussie is heading higher on this stretch with a close above 6872 needed to suggest a more significant breakout of a multi-year formation is underway.

Keep in mind we get the release of key US inflation data this week with the July Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) on tap Friday. Stay nimble into the release and watch the weekly close here. Review my latest Australian Dollar Short-term Outlook for a closer look at the near-term AUD/USD technical trade levels.

Australia / US Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.

Active Weekly Technical Charts

--- Written by Michael Boutros, Sr Technical Strategist with FOREX.com

Follow Michael on X @MBForex

The information on this web site is not targeted at the general public of any particular country. It is not intended for distribution to residents in any country where such distribution or use would contravene any local law or regulatory requirement. The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on our analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.

Futures, Options on Futures, Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Losses can exceed your deposits. Increasing leverage increases risk. Spot Gold and Silver contracts are not subject to regulation under the U.S. Commodity Exchange Act. Contracts for Difference (CFDs) are not available for US residents. Before deciding to trade forex, commodity futures, or digital assets, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained herein is intended as general information about the subject matter covered and is provided with the understanding that we do not provide any investment, legal, or tax advice. You should consult with appropriate counsel or other advisors on all investment, legal, or tax matters. References to FOREX.com or GAIN Capital refer to StoneX Group Inc. and its subsidiaries. Please read Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options.

FOREX.com is a registered FCM and RFED with the CFTC and member of the National Futures Association (NFA # 0339826). Forex trading involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Full Disclosures and Risk Warning. Increased leverage increases risk.

GAIN Capital Group LLC (dba FOREX.com) 30 Independence Blvd, Suite 300 (3rd floor), Warren, NJ 07059, USA. GAIN Capital Group LLC is a wholly-owned subsidiary of StoneX Group Inc.