Australian Dollar Short-term Outlook: AUD/USD Rests at Resistance

Australian Dollar Technical Outlook: AUD/USD Short-term Trade Levels

Australian Dollar surges more than 4.6% after registering fresh yearly low
AUD/USD recovery now testing technical resistance- weekly opening range breakout imminent
Resistance 6626/40, 6670/93 (key), 6759/61– Support 6572, 6541, 6497 (key)

The Australian Dollar marked a massive outside weekly-reversal off support last week with AUD/USD rallying 4.64% from fresh yearly lows. The recovery is now approaching the first major resistance hurdle with a tight weekly opening-range intact just below. Battle lines drawn on the AUD/USD short-term technical charts.

Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this AUD/USD technical setup and more. Join live on Monday’s at 8:30am EST.

Australian Dollar Price Chart – AUD/USD Daily

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; AUD/USD on TradingView

Technical Outlook: In my last Australian Dollar Short-term Outlook we noted that AUD/USD had, “defended the yearly lows with the weekly range set just below the objective August-open- looking for a reaction there IF reached. From a trading standpoint, pullbacks should be limited to the low-day close IF price is heading for a near-term breakout with a close above 6627 needed to validate yesterday’s low.”

A breach / daily close above the monthly open two-days later fueled a rally of more than 1.5% with Aussie now testing resistance around the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the July decline at 6627. It has not been the cleanest touch so far and the immediate focus is on the median-line (blue) of this proposed descending pitchfork formation- a close above this slope would be needed to fuel the next leg in price with the Aussie bulls vulnerable while below.

Australian Dollar Price Chart – AUD/USD 240min

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; AUD/USD on TradingView

Notes: A closer look at Aussie price action shows AUD/USD trading within the confines of near-term ascending channel formation with the objective weekly opening-range intact heading into Friday. Weekly open support rests at 6571 and is backed by the objective August open at 6541. A break / close below this threshold would threaten the monthly advance and expose the yearly low-day close (LDC) at 6497- an area of interest for possible downside exhaustion IF reached.

A topside breach / close above of the weekly opening-range highs (6640s) is needed to mark uptrend resumption with the next major resistance hurdle eyed at 6670/93- a pivot region defined by the 2019 swing low and the May high-close (HC). Look for a larger reaction there IF reached with a close above needed to suggest a more significant low was registered this month and keep the focus on a stretch towards the July / 2024 high-day closes (HDC) at 6759/61.

Bottom line: A rally off fresh yearly lows is now testing major technical / Fibonacci resistance and while the near-term outlook remains constructive, the immediate advance may be vulnerable here. From a trading standpoint, a good zone to reduce portions of long-exposure / raise protective stops – losses should be limited to the monthly open IF price is heading higher on this stretch with a breakout of the weekly opening-range highs needed to mark resumption. Watch the weekly close here - review my latest Australian Dollar Weekly Forecast for a closer look at the longer-term AUD/USD technical trade levels.

Key AUD/USD Economic Data Releases

Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.

Active Short-term Technical Charts

Written by Michael Boutros, Sr Technical Strategist with FOREX.com

Follow Michael on X @MBForex

The information on this web site is not targeted at the general public of any particular country. It is not intended for distribution to residents in any country where such distribution or use would contravene any local law or regulatory requirement. The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on our analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.

Futures, Options on Futures, Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Losses can exceed your deposits. Increasing leverage increases risk. Spot Gold and Silver contracts are not subject to regulation under the U.S. Commodity Exchange Act. Contracts for Difference (CFDs) are not available for US residents. Before deciding to trade forex, commodity futures, or digital assets, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained herein is intended as general information about the subject matter covered and is provided with the understanding that we do not provide any investment, legal, or tax advice. You should consult with appropriate counsel or other advisors on all investment, legal, or tax matters. References to FOREX.com or GAIN Capital refer to StoneX Group Inc. and its subsidiaries. Please read Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options.

FOREX.com is a registered FCM and RFED with the CFTC and member of the National Futures Association (NFA # 0339826). Forex trading involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Full Disclosures and Risk Warning. Increased leverage increases risk.

GAIN Capital Group LLC (dba FOREX.com) 30 Independence Blvd, Suite 300 (3rd floor), Warren, NJ 07059, USA. GAIN Capital Group LLC is a wholly-owned subsidiary of StoneX Group Inc.