Australian Dollar Short-term Outlook: AUD/USD Bulls Re-Appear

Australian Dollar Technical Outlook: AUD/USD Short-term Trade Levels

Australian Dollar plunges rebound off technical support now testing resistance
AUD/USD threatening breakout of multi-month consolidation pattern
Resistance 6523/25, 6566/67 (key), 6606– Support 6630, 6399 (key), 6321

The Australian Dollar rallied more than 1.3% over the past two-days with AUD/USD building on a rebound off technical support. The recovery is now approaching pivotal resistance and the battle lines are drawn within the February opening-range. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the AUD/USD short-term technical chart.

Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this AUD/USD technical setup and more. Join live on Monday’s at 8:30am EST.

Australian Dollar Price Chart – AUD/USD Daily

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; AUD/USD on TradingView

Technical Outlook: In my last Australian Dollar Short-term Outlook we noted that AUD/USD had, “broken multi-month uptrend support with the sell-off now approaching a key inflection zone- looking for a reaction down here. From a trading standpoint, look to reduce short-exposure / lower protective stops on a stretch toward 6500 – rallies should be limited to 6670 IF price is heading lower on this stretch with a close below this pivot zone needed to fuel the next major move in price.”

Aussie rallied more than 1.5% the following days to register a high at 6624 before reversing sharply into February. Price has now plunged more than 2.7% off the late-January highs with AUD/USD rebounding off slope support this week. A two-day rally is now testing confluent resistance near the December & January lows / weekly-open and we’re on the lookout for possible price inflection up here.

Australian Dollar Price Chart – AUD/USD 240min

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; AUD/USD on TradingView

Notes: A closer look at Aussie price action shows AUD/USD trading within the confines of descending wedge formation. A rebound off slope support is now testing initial resistance at 6523/25 with the January trendline just higher. Ultimately, a topside breach / close above the February open / 200-day moving average at 6566/67 is needed to suggest a more significant low was registered this week (near-term bearish invalidation). Subsequent resistance objective eyed at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the December decline / monthly opening-range high at 6606/10.

Slope support currently rests near ~6630s and is backed by the 78.6% retracement of the October rally at 6399- an area of interest for possible downside exhaustion / price inflection IF reached. Losses below this threshold would threaten a test of the 2023 low-day close (LDC) near 3621.

Bottom line: The Australian Dollar has rebounded off downtrend support on building momentum divergence with the rally now testing near-term resistance- risk for price inflection. From at trading standpoint, a good zone to reduce portions of long-exposure / raise protective stops – the weekly opening-range is preserved within the broader wedge formation heading into Friday and we’re looking for the breakout to offer guidance here. Ultimately, a close above 6567 would be needed to suggest a larger reversal is underway. Review my latest Australian Dollar Weekly Forecast for a closer look at the longer-term AUD/USD technical trade levels.

Key AUD/USD Economic Data Releases

Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.

Active Short-term Technical Charts

Written by Michael Boutros, Sr Technical Strategist with FOREX.com

Follow Michael on X @MBForex

The information on this web site is not targeted at the general public of any particular country. It is not intended for distribution to residents in any country where such distribution or use would contravene any local law or regulatory requirement. The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on our analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.

Futures, Options on Futures, Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Losses can exceed your deposits. Increasing leverage increases risk. Spot Gold and Silver contracts are not subject to regulation under the U.S. Commodity Exchange Act. Contracts for Difference (CFDs) are not available for US residents. Before deciding to trade forex, commodity futures, or digital assets, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained herein is intended as general information about the subject matter covered and is provided with the understanding that we do not provide any investment, legal, or tax advice. You should consult with appropriate counsel or other advisors on all investment, legal, or tax matters. References to FOREX.com or GAIN Capital refer to StoneX Group Inc. and its subsidiaries. Please read Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options.

FOREX.com is a registered FCM and RFED with the CFTC and member of the National Futures Association (NFA # 0339826). Forex trading involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Full Disclosures and Risk Warning. Increased leverage increases risk.

GAIN Capital Group LLC (dba FOREX.com) 30 Independence Blvd, Suite 300 (3rd floor), Warren, NJ 07059, USA. GAIN Capital Group LLC is a wholly-owned subsidiary of StoneX Group Inc.