Australian Dollar Short-term Outlook: AUD/USD Bulls Eye Resistance

Australian Dollar Technical Outlook: AUD/USD Short-term Trade Levels

• Australian Dollar surges nearly 4.7% in November- breaches 200DMA
• AUD/USD four-day rally approaching key technical confluence just higher.
• Resistance 6670/74 (key), 6714, 6817/19– support 6582/85, 6548/65, 6502

The Australian Dollar rallied nine of the past twelve sessions with a four-day stretch taking AUD/USD towards a key technical confluence. While a breakout of the November opening-range keeps the focus higher, the advance may be vulnerable into this threshold and the Aussie battle lines are drawn heading into the close of the month. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the AUD/USD short-term technical charts.

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Australian Dollar Price Chart – AUD/USD Daily

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; AUD/USD on TradingView

Technical Outlook: The Australian Dollar is trading within the confines of an ascending pitchfork extending off the October lows with a breakout of the November opening-range last week fueling a rally to fresh multi-month highs. The advance is within striking distance of a key technical confluence just higher at 6670/74- a region defined by the 2008 low-week close and the 2019 swing low. Note that both the February downtrend (red) and near-term uptrend (blue) converge on this threshold over the next few days- looking for a reaction there IF reached with the advance vulnerable into this zone.

Australian Dollar Price Chart – AUD/USD 240min

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; AUD/USD on TradingView

Notes: A closer look at Aussie price action shows AUD/USD breaching the 200-day moving average into the weekly open with the rally now pressing slope resistance at the 75% parallel. Weekly-open support / 200DMA rests at 6582/85 and is backed closely by the October 2022 swing high / March low at 6548/65. Near-term bullish invalidation now raised to the May low-day close at 6502.

A topside breach / close above 6670/74 is needed to fuel the next leg higher in price with such a scenario exposing subsequent objectives at 6714 and key resistance at the yearly open / 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the February decline at 6817/19- look for a larger reaction there IF reached.  

Bottom line: The Australian Dollar breakout is approaching a major technical confluence into the close of the month. Form a trading standpoint, look to reduce portions of long-exposure / raise protective stops on a stretch towards 6670s – losses should be limited to 6548 IF price is heading higher with a breach / close above this key technical confluence needed to mark uptrend resumption. Stay nimble into the monthly close with key US inflation data on Thursday likely to fuel some volatility here. Review my latest Australian Dollar Weekly Forecast for a closer look at the longer-term AUD/USD technical trade levels.

Key AUD/USD Economic Data Releases

Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.

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Written by Michael Boutros, Sr Technical Strategist with FOREX.com

Follow Michael on X @MBForex