Australian Dollar Forecast: AUD/USD Bulls Testing Pivotal Resistance

Australian Technical Forecast: AUD/USD Weekly Trade Levels

• Australian Dollar rallies nearly 1.6% off monthly lows- range breakout imminent
• AUD/USD bulls testing major pivot zone for six-weeks- risk for exhaustion / price inflection
• Resistance 6673/90 (key), 6810/19, 6922- Support 6556/79, 6496 (key), 6433

The Australian Dollar rallied more than 0.7% this week with AUD/USD testing technical resistance for the sixth-consecutive week. We’re looking for a reaction up here with the broader April rally still vulnerable while below this key resistance hurdle. Battle lines drawn on the AUD/USD weekly technical chart into the close of June.

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Australian Dollar Price Chart – AUD/USD Weekly

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; AUD/USD on TradingView

Technical Outlook: In last month’s Australian Dollar Technical Forecast we noted that the AUD/USD rally had, “extended into the first major resistance hurdle and leaves the bulls vulnerable into the close of the month. From a trading standpoint, losses should be limited to t 6556 IF Aussie is heading higher on this stretch with a breach / weekly close above 6700 needed to fuel the next leg higher in price.”

AUD/USD plunged more than 2% in the following weeks with price registering an intraweek low at 6576 before rebounding. Aussie has been testing resistance for six-consecutive weeks now and the focus is on possible exhaustion / price inflection into this threshold.

Key resistance remains unchanged at 6673/90 – a region defined by the 2019 low, the 2008 low-week close (LWC), the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the December decline and the 100% extension of the April rally. A topside breach / weekly close above this pivot zone is needed to mark uptrend resumption towards the objective yearly open / 61.8% retracement of the 2023 range at 6810/19 and the December highs at 6871. Key resistance steady at the 2023 high-week close (HWC) near 6922.

Initial support rests with the 52-week moving average / 38.2% retracement of the April rally at 6556/79. Key support / bullish invalidation now rests with the 61.8% retracement at 6497- note that the lower parallel converges on this threshold over the next few weeks. Losses below this threshold would threaten another test of the 2024 & 2023 low-week closes (LWC) at 6433 and 6334 respectively.

Bottom line: AUD/USD has been testing pivotal resistance for over a month now and the immediate focus is on a breakout of the 6556-6690 range for guidance. From a trading standpoint, a good zone to reduce portions of long-exposure / raise protective stops- losses should be limited to yearly moving average IF price is heading higher on this stretch with a breach / close above 7700 needed to fuel the next leg in price.

Keep in mind we get in the release of key US inflation data next week with the May Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) on tap into the close of the month. Stay nimble into the release and watch the weekly closes for guidance here. Review my latest Australian Dollar Short-term Outlook for a closer look at the near-term AUD/USD technical trade levels.

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--- Written by Michael Boutros, Sr Technical Strategist with FOREX.com

Follow Michael on X @MBForex