AUD/USD Outlook Hinges on Reaction to Negative Slope in 50-Day SMA
AUD/USD Outlook: AUD/USD
AUD/USD trades in a narrow range after registering a fresh yearly low (0.6286) during the first of October, but the exchange rate may track the negative slope in the 50-Day SMA (0.6440) if it fails to clear the monthly high (0.6445).
AUD/USD Outlook Hinges on Reaction to Negative Slope in 50-Day SMA
AUD/USD struggled to hold its ground as the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) kept the official cash rate (OCR) at 4.10%, and the exchange rate may threaten the opening range for October as the central bank warns that ‘the economy is still experiencing a period of below-trend growth.’
Join David Song for the Weekly Fundamental Market Outlook webinar. Register Here
It seems as though the RBA is reluctant to implement higher interest rates as Governor Michele Bullock and Co. reiterate that the ‘recent data are consistent with inflation returning to the 2–3 per cent target range over the forecast period,’ and the Australian Dollar may continue to underperform against its US counterpart as the Federal Reserve keeps the door open to pursue a more restrictive policy.
US Economic Calendar
However, the update to the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) may produce headwinds for the Greenback as both the headline and core rate are anticipated to show slowing inflation, and AUD/USD may attempt to retrace the decline from the monthly high (0.6445) should the data prints fuel speculation of seeing US interest rates unchanged over the remainder of the year.
At the same time, a stronger-than-expected CPI report may generate a bullish reaction in the US Dollar as it puts pressure on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to further combat inflation, and AUD/USD may track the negative slope in the 50-Day SMA (0.6440) as it appears to be reversing ahead of the monthly high (0.6445).
With that said, a downtick in the US CPI may prop up AUD/USD as it encourages the Fed to keep interest rates on hold, but the exchange rate may stage further attempts to test the November 2022 low (0.6272) if it fails to defend the opening range for October.
AUD/USD Price Chart – Daily
Chart Prepared by David Song, Strategist; AUD/USD on TradingView
- AUD/USD may attempt to extend the rebound from a fresh yearly low (0.6286) as it holds above the November 2022 low (0.6272), with a break/close above the 0.6380 (78.6% Fibonacci retracement) to 0.6410 (50% Fibonacci extension) region raising the scope for a run at the monthly high (0.6445).
- Next area of interest comes in around 0.6510 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement) to 0.6520 (23.6% Fibonacci retracement) area back on the radar, which largely lines up with the September high (0.6522), but AUD/USD may track the negative slope in the 50-Day SMA (0.6440) if it fails to clear the monthly high (0.6445).
- A breach below the monthly low (0.6286) brings the November 2022 low (0.6272) back on the radar, with a break/close below 0.6240 (61.8% Fibonacci extension) opening up the 2022 low (0.6170).
Additional Market Outlooks
US Dollar Forecast: EUR/USD Rebound Emerges Ahead of December 2022 Low
US Dollar Forecast: USD/CAD RSI Flirts with Overbought Zone
--- Written by David Song, Strategist
Follow on Twitter at @DavidJSong
The information on this web site is not targeted at the general public of any particular country. It is not intended for distribution to residents in any country where such distribution or use would contravene any local law or regulatory requirement. The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on our analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.
Futures, Options on Futures, Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Losses can exceed your deposits. Increasing leverage increases risk. Spot Gold and Silver contracts are not subject to regulation under the U.S. Commodity Exchange Act. Contracts for Difference (CFDs) are not available for US residents. Before deciding to trade forex, commodity futures, or digital assets, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained herein is intended as general information about the subject matter covered and is provided with the understanding that we do not provide any investment, legal, or tax advice. You should consult with appropriate counsel or other advisors on all investment, legal, or tax matters. References to FOREX.com or GAIN Capital refer to StoneX Group Inc. and its subsidiaries. Please read Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options.
FOREX.com is a registered FCM and RFED with the CFTC and member of the National Futures Association (NFA # 0339826). Forex trading involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Full Disclosures and Risk Warning. Increased leverage increases risk.
GAIN Capital Group LLC (dba FOREX.com) 30 Independence Blvd, Suite 300 (3rd floor), Warren, NJ 07059, USA. GAIN Capital Group LLC is a wholly-owned subsidiary of StoneX Group Inc.
© FOREX.COM 2025