Open an Account
☰
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 76% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Open an Account
✖

AUD USD still elevated on US dollar weakness ahead of key Australian releases

Article By: ,  Financial Analyst
February 15, 2018 4:41 PM

Early next week features some key releases from Australia, including the minutes from the last Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) monetary policy meeting in early February, and the quarterly Wage Price Index. On February 6th, the RBA left interest rates unchanged as widely expected, marking a full year-and-a-half without any rate changes. The central bank is not expected to raise interest rates until either late this year at the earliest, or possibly next year. The RBA’s recurring concerns about a strong Australian dollar is one of the factors precluding a more immediate rate hike.

Meanwhile, the US Federal Reserve is widely expected to raise interest rates again at its next meeting in March. This may especially be the case since US indicators have recently shown a greater-than-expected increase in inflation, and US government bond yields have remained elevated near new multi-year highs. This monetary policy divergence between the RBA and Fed is potentially a pressuring factor for AUD/USD, though expectations of higher US interest rates have thus far been unable to provide any meaningful boost for the heavily oversold US dollar.

From a technical perspective, AUD/USD has been on the rebound for the past week – mostly due to resumed weakness in the US dollar – after the currency pair dropped precipitously during the first week of February. That drop brought AUD/USD down to approach a key support target around the 0.7750 level before the current rebound. Amid the noted Australian releases early next week, any resumption of weakness in the Australian dollar and/or relief rebound for the beleaguered US dollar, could have the potential to pressure AUD/USD back down towards that 0.7750-area target. Any extended breakdown below 0.7750 would be a key technical event that could lead to significantly further losses for the currency pair.


The information on this web site is not targeted at the general public of any particular country. It is not intended for distribution to residents in any country where such distribution or use would contravene any local law or regulatory requirement. The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on our analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.

Futures, Options on Futures, Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Losses can exceed your deposits. Increasing leverage increases risk. Spot Gold and Silver contracts are not subject to regulation under the U.S. Commodity Exchange Act. Contracts for Difference (CFDs) are not available for US residents. Before deciding to trade forex, commodity futures, or digital assets, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained herein is intended as general information about the subject matter covered and is provided with the understanding that we do not provide any investment, legal, or tax advice. You should consult with appropriate counsel or other advisors on all investment, legal, or tax matters. References to FOREX.com or GAIN Capital refer to StoneX Group Inc. and its subsidiaries. Please read Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options.

FOREX.com is a registered FCM and RFED with the CFTC and member of the National Futures Association (NFA # 0339826). Forex trading involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Full Disclosures and Risk Warning. Increased leverage increases risk.

GAIN Capital Group LLC (dba FOREX.com) 30 Independence Blvd, Suite 300 (3rd floor), Warren, NJ 07059, USA. GAIN Capital Group LLC is a wholly-owned subsidiary of StoneX Group Inc.

© FOREX.COM 2025