CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 74% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Open Account
☰
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 74% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Open Account
✖

WTI Forecast: Israel-Lebanon Ceasefire Drives Crude Oil Back Toward $69

Article By: ,  Head of Market Research
November 25, 2024 7:00 PM

WTI Crude Oil Key Points

  • Israel and Lebanon are reportedly nearing a potential ceasefire agreement to end the year-long Israel-Hezbollah conflict.
  • Accordingly, stock indices are rising, safe havens like gold are falling, and crude oil prices are on track for their 2nd-worst day since October.
  • The long-term trend in oil prices remains lower, and traders could therefore be keen to sell any bounces back toward the declining 100-day MA and previous-support-turned-resistance near $72.00

According to an Axios report, Israel and Lebanon are nearing a potential ceasefire agreement to end the year-long Israel-Hezbollah conflict.

The proposed deal includes a 60-day transition phase where the Israeli military would withdraw from southern Lebanon, Hezbollah would relocate heavy weapons north of the Litani River, and the Lebanese army would secure the border with UN peacekeepers. The US would oversee the agreement through a monitoring committee, supporting Israeli action against emerging threats.

According to a US official speaking on the situation, "We think we have a deal. We are on the goal line but we haven't passed it yet. The Israeli cabinet needs to approve the deal on Tuesday and something can always go wrong until then.”

In the wake of the report, traders are starting to price in an imminent ceasefire (though arguably they have been partially discounting the potential for an agreement for weeks now), with stock indices rising, safe havens like gold falling, and crude oil prices on track for their 2nd-worst day since October.

Crude Oil Technical Analysis – WTI Crude Oil Daily Chart

Source: TradingView, StoneX

Turning our attention to the technical outlook for oil, WTI’s drop today is reversing almost all of last week’s rally to leave oil back near the $69.00 level as we go to press. From a broader perspective, WTI remains solidly in the middle of its 6-week range between $67.00 and $72.00, leaving little in the way of a strong near-term technical bias.

From a longer-term perspective, the trend in oil prices remains lower, and traders could therefore be keen to sell any bounces back toward the declining 100-day MA and previous-support-turned-resistance near $72.00 (especially with potential concerns of supply disruption receding).

-- Written by Matt Weller, Global Head of Research

Check out Matt’s Daily Market Update videos on YouTube and be sure to follow Matt on Twitter: @MWellerFX

StoneX Financial Ltd (trading as "FOREX.com") is an execution-only service provider. This material, whether or not it states any opinions, is for general information purposes only and it does not take into account your personal circumstances or objectives. This material has been prepared using the thoughts and opinions of the author and these may change. However, FOREX.com does not plan to provide further updates to any material once published and it is not under any obligation to keep this material up to date.


This material is short term in nature and may only relate to facts and circumstances existing at a specific time or day. Nothing in this material is (or should be considered to be) financial, investment, legal, tax or other advice and no reliance should be placed on it. No opinion given in this material constitutes a recommendation by FOREX.com or the author that any particular investment, security, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.


The material has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Although FOREX.com is not specifically prevented from dealing before providing this material, FOREX.com does not seek to take advantage of the material prior to its dissemination. This material is not intended for distribution to, or use by, any person in any country or jurisdiction where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation. For further details see our full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.


CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 74% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. CFD and Forex Trading are leveraged products and your capital is at risk. They may not be suitable for everyone. Please ensure you fully understand the risks involved by reading our full risk warning.

FOREX.com is a trading name of StoneX Financial Ltd. StoneX Financial Ltd is a company incorporated in England and Wales with UK Companies House number 05616586 and with its registered office at 1st Floor, Moor House, 120 London Wall, London, EC2Y 5ET. StoneX Financial Ltd is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority in the UK, with FCA Register Number: 446717.

FOREX.com is a trademark of StoneX Financial Ltd. This website uses cookies to provide you with the very best experience and to know you better. By visiting our website with your browser set to allow cookies, you consent to our use of cookies as described in our Privacy Policy. FOREX.com products and services are not intended for Belgium residents.

© FOREX.COM 2024