oil WTI

Oil steadies after 3-days of losses. Easing tension in the Middle East saw the geopolitical risk premium fall. However, OPEC+ pushing back its December 1st meeting raises optimism the group will postpone unwinding oil production cuts. Volumes will likely remain low owing to the US Thanksgiving holiday.

Market positioning shows an influx of shorts hitting crude oil, in what now looks like a cycle low. And whilst bulls are eying a break of $80, they could benefit from a pullback first.

Crude oil finds itself between a rock and a hard place where technical levels are concerned, although that doesn't mean it can't at least make a minor bullish breakout before another leg lower. Price action on bitcoin appears to be more constructive for bulls, at least over the near term.

Oil prices have been very range-bound over the past few months but breakout potential remains as WTI has built an ascending triangle inside of the recent range.

Thanksgiving in the US has made for a very quiet second half to the week for traders, but with a key US inflation report and an OPEC meeting on tap then volatility is expected to return next week. Also note that Australia releases inflation figures which could be the deciding factor as to whether the RBA hold or hike at their final meeting of the year.

The rapid decline of oil prices last week has seen calls for $100 WTI come into question. But with prices showing signs of stability above $80 on Friday and Iran declaring war on Palestine, oil prices will be closely watched due to concerns of a supply disruption potentially on the horizon.

The combination of softer US economic data and yields pulling back from their highs allowed risk assets to sigh in relief and lift themselves cautiously from their cycle lows. Although oil prices plunged at the prospects of a struggling consumer due to low gasoline demand, sending WTI crude oil 5.5% lower during its worst day this year.

WTI crude has risen to $91.65 per barrel (bbl) at time of writing, with a $93.44 high Brent crude oil has risen to $94.58 per barrel (bbl) at time of writing, with a $95.66 high The US dollar index has risen to 105.2 with strong momentum

Oil sees heightened volatility on Russia-Ukraine fears. EUR/USD extends losses amid risk off trade and ahead of ECB Lagarde.

EUR/CHF appears poised for a countertrend bounce, having displayed a momentum shift at key support levels.

WTI managed to trade back above $79 during quiet trade overnight, and price action suggests bulls are trying to carve out a swing low.

Slightly higher consumer confidence and upwardly revised growth in the US was enough to put another spring into bullish steps on Wall Street, ahead of the holidays.

The United Kingdom has recorded the first known Omicron-related death, as the World Health Organisation warns that variant could pose as a global risk.

After a lull in the calendar we have several data sets to complete the week, with US inflation being the main event.

An article in the Financial Times triggered a fresh round of selling before the European open, as Moderna’s CEO predicts vaccines will be less effective.

To say markets were volatile on Friday would be quite an understatement. So today is about whether the selling will continue, or whether volatility will pause for breath.